Oct. 13 – Week 5 Review

Week 4 was an unusual week for me. Overall I went 9-5 on the picks, which at first glance seems good, but the 5 losers were 5 of my top 6 confidence picks. Interestingly, on the over/unders, I went 8-6, but 7-1 on the top 8 confidence in that category. So go figure that out, Sherlock. I’m now 39-34 on the season, a discouraging 7-10 in the top 4, and 3-2 on best bets. Here are quick reviews of the Week 5 games:

Julius Peppers - courtesy Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America

14) Chicago at Carolina (Line : CHI – 2.5, O/U : 35.5) The model has the Bears winning by 2.57, so this contest is awful close to the line. Jay Cutler should be back, and the Bears should get well against a offensively challenged Carolina team in a defensive struggle: Bears 18 Panthers 15. Actual Score: Bears 23 Panthers 6 How do you know you are a really bad football team? When the opposing QB looks lost, throws 4 picks, and you still lose by 17. Welcome to the 2010 Panthers. The Bears can thank Julius Peppers’ revenge game for this win, and are just happy to survive the week without Jay Cutler. Awin on both ends in this one.

13) Green Bay at Washington (Line : GBP – 2.5, O/U : 44) Another game here that is close to the line – the model has the Pack winning by 2.15 – A contest of two teams without their running backs, so McNabb and Rodgers should air it out here: Packers 23 Redskins 21. Actual Score: Redskins 16 Packers 13 This was a really rough loss for Green Bay. Not only do they essentially fall 1.5 games behind the division leading Bears, but they may also lose Aaron Rodgers to a concussion for next week’s jaunt against Miami. On the other side, it looks like Washington will be a contender all year – something they haven’t seen for a while in DC. Mark a win on the line, and a loss on the over/under.

12) Atlanta at Cleveland (Line : ATL – 3, O/U : 40.5) The Browns continue to look like an improved team every week. They will try to take a second straight game at home with Jake Delhomme returning to the helm. The Falcons will try to make it 4 straight – the model says they do: Falcons 24 Browns 19. Actual Score: Falcons 20 Browns 10 Very quietly, the Falcons have put themselves way ahead of the Saints in the NFC South. Michael Turner had a very impressive outing in this one. The Browns went through 2 QBs in the loss, and now look to Colt McCoy next week against the Steelers. A winning pick, and an over/under loss.

11) Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (Line : CIN – 6.5, O/U : 38) The Bucs come off their bye week and visit a Bengal team that finally found their passing game last week. Look for that trend to continue this week, but the Tampa defense should keep it tight: Bengals 24 Buccaneers 19. Actual Score: Buccaneers 24 Bengals 21 The surprising Bucs moved to 3-1 with this last second FG win against the Cats. Mike Williams and Ernest Graham led Tampa to the road win, while one has to wonder if Cincy will look to this game when they are fighting for a wild card in December. A win on both ends here.

10)  N.Y. Giants at Houston (Line : HOU – 3, O/U : 47.5) New York was impressive on defense against Chicago, but still needs to make more strides on offense to outscore the Texans. Will they be able to stop the Houston running game? The model likes a close one: Giants 22 Texans 21. Actual Score: Giants 34 Texans 10 It looks like after a big start against the Colts, the Texans passing game has completely fallen apart. If it weren’t for the emergence of Arian Foster, this team could really be in trouble. The Giants scored a big road win here, and will try to keep up the big scoring for a third straight week when they host Detroit. Wins on both the line and the over/under in this game.

9) Minnesota at N.Y. Jets (Line : NYJ – 4, O/U : 39) Against most teams the addition of Randy Moss would open up the field for Adrian Peterson – but this is the Jets, and with Darrelle Revis returning, he should lock up Moss by himself. The pick is the Jets continue to roll: Jets 25 Vikings 17. Actual Score: Jets 29 Vikings 20 Another frustrating loss for this Vikings fan. Another game, another Favre pick to lose it. The Jets were very impressive on defensive, and were able to do what few teams can on offense – run on Minnesota. The Dallas/Minnesota matchup next week might as well be a playoff game – the loser goes to 1-4.  Wins on both ends here.

8 ) Tennessee at Dallas  (Line : DAL – 6.5, O/U : 41.5) Tennessee will look to recover after a surprising loss to Denver, but will have a tough task against a Cowboy team coming off a bye. The Titans play well on the road though, and the prediction is they keep this one close: Cowboys 19 Titans 17. Actual Score: Titans 34 Cowboys 27 An 0-2 start at home cannot make Jerry Jones very pleased. The Boys have to turn to Felix Jones on the ground – Marion Barber is a shell of his former self. What happened to the vaunted Dallas D? It almost seems Demarcus Ware has gone into hiding. The Titans have now beaten both the Giants and Cowboys on the road – an impressive feat. A winning prediction, but an over/under loss.

7) Jacksonville at Buffalo (Line : Pickem, O/U : 41) If there will be a letdown for the Jags after their big win over Indy, this will be a big letdown. Buffalo will look to Ryan Fitzpatrick to take advantage of a porous Jag D. The pick is Jacksonville: Jaguars 29 Bills 22. Actual Score: Jaguars 36 Bills 26 The Bills are slowly getting better on the offensive side of the ball – Fred Jackson gives them a little more versatility, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked much better than Edwards – but defensively they still have ways to go. This gives the Jags two nice wins in a row, putting them at 3-2 heading into a big clash with rival Tennessee on Monday night. Wins on the line and the over/under here.

6) New Orleans at Arizona (Line : NOR – 6.5, O/U : 45) Is Max Hall the answer? Arizona hopes so, but they have other problems – they have given up a ton of rushing yards, and with the prospect of Pierre Thomas returning, the model likes the Saints: Saints 30 Cardinals 15. Actual Score: Cardinals 30 Saints 20 Looks like Max Hall will be getting another start. The Cards won with good defense and a solid, yet unspectacular debut by Hall. The Saints are now one loss away from tying their total from last year. They hope to have Pierre Thomas back for their game with division foe Tampa Bay. Losses on both ends in this one.

5) Kansas City at Indianapolis (Line : IND – 8, O/U : 45) The Chiefs have a tough assignment off the bye week – defending their perfect record at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts have yet to establish the run, but will they need to? The model likes a close contest: Chiefs 21 Colts 20. Actual Score: Colts 19 Chiefs 9 Kansas City kept this contest close for most of the game, trading field goals with the Colts until the very end. The KC defense was impressive, not allowing Peyton to hit big strikes down the field. It may be their first tally in the loss column, but Chiefs fans should be encouraged by the effort. Pre-season predictions for this team look to be way off. A loss on the line, but an over/under win.

4) Denver at Baltimore (Line : BAL – 7, O/U : 38.5) The Broncos look for a second straight big win on the road. The 3-1 Ravens will try to be more impressive at home, but their weak secondary will be put to the test against the Denver passing attack. The pick is an upset: Broncos 20 Ravens 18. Actual Score: Ravens 31 Broncos 17 Denver was unable to make it two road wins in a row, as they were never really in this game at all. Credit has to be given to Baltimore’s secondary – they lost Ed Reed and Dominique Foxworth, yet they are rated number one against the pass – and they bottled up the league’s number one passing team in this one. Denver will need to do better against the run, especially next week against the Jets. Losses on both ends here.

3) San Diego at Oakland (Line : SDC – 6, O/U : 45) In two games on the road, the Chargers have lost to teams that should be inferior (Seattle and KC). In two games at home, they have won convincingly (Arixona and Jacksonville). Which team will show up in Oakland? The good one: Chargers 31 Raiders 16. Actual Score: Raiders 35 Chargers 27 Well that makes two straight years Oakland has killed survivor pool players. Last year it was a big win against a surging Philly team, and this year they break an age-long streak losing to the Bolts. Special teams killed San Diego here – 9 points for Oakland due to blocked kicks would have had the Chargers in the win column. They have now lost 3 road games to KC, Oakland, and Seattle. Ouch. A loss on the pick, and an over/under win.

2) St. Louis at Detroit (Line : DET – 3, O/U : 42.5) The line in this one is most likely based on a nice performance by the Lions last week – but, as you’ve already read, I’m big on the Rams D, and so is the model. Take the Rams here: Rams 28 Lions 19. Actual Score: Lions 44 Rams 6 The honeymoon is over – the one between myself and the Rams D that is. Detroit exploded for a ton of points – primarily through the passing game. St. Louis could not get anything going on offense – Bradford struggled, and Steven Jackson was a non-factor. A loss on the pick, and an over/under win.

1) Philadelphia at San Francisco  (Line : SFO – 3.5, O/U : 38)Kevin Kolb gets the start, and he needs to do better than he did in Week 1, or last week. The Niners just need to do better, period. Their first home game was close – will they get win #1 here? The prediction is no: Eagles 24 49ers 12. Actual Score: Eagles 27 49ers 24 Kevin Kolb looked sharp, and the Eagles edged the hapless Niners. Alex Smith was inconsistent yet again, and Mike Singletary pointed it out in the national spotlight. He will get another start, but if the Niners cant beat neighbor Oakland at home, I’d say the bell tolls for Smith – and Singletary. A winning best bet, and a loss on the line.

Hockey Update : Through 35 games, the model is basically even. I’ve been doing poorly on the lines, but well on the over/unders. Overall I’m up about 15 units without the vig, and down 5 units with it. Hopefully it will improve as this season’s sample increases.

I’ll have Week 6 up shortly.