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Nov. 7 – Week 9 Picks

November 7, 2010 Leave a comment

Last minute week 9 picks :

13) San Diego at Houston (Line : SDC – 3, O/U : 49.5) Chargers 27 Texans 23

12) New England at Cleveland (Line : NEP – 4, O/U : 43.5) Patriots 23 Browns 18

11) Arizona at Minnesota (Line : MIN – 7.5, O/U : 41.5) Vikings 27 Cardinals 21

10) Miami at Baltimore (Line : BAL – 5.5, O/U : 41) Ravens 29 Dolphins 25

9) Indianapolis at Philadelphia (Line : PHI – 3, O/U : 46.5) Eagles 25 Colts 24

8 ) New Orleans at Carolina (Line : NOR – 6.5, O/U : 40.5) Saints 21 Panthers 16

7) N.Y. Giants at Seattle (Line : NYG – 7, O/U : 40.5) Giants 28 Seahawks 19

6) Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Line : ATL – 9, O/U : 45.5) Falcons 28 Buccaneers 23

5) Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (Line : PIT – 5, O/U : 41.5) Steelers 24 Bengals 23

4) Chicago at Buffalo (Line : CHI – 3, O/U : 41.5) Bills 21 Bears 19

3) Dallas at Green Bay (Line : GBP – 7, O/U : 45.5) Packers 29 Cowboys 15

2) Kansas City at Oakland (Line : PK, O/U : 41) Raiders 28 Chiefs 13

1) N.Y. Jets at Detroit (Line : NYJ – 5, O/U : 42) Lions 26 Jets 15

Good luck in Week 9!

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Categories: NFL

Oct. 30 – Week 8 Picks

October 30, 2010 Leave a comment

Hey – Still crazy at work – locking a database is fun! Here are the Week 8 picks:

13) Pittsburgh at New Orleans (Line : NOR – 1, O/U : 44) Steelers 21 Saints 20

12) Green Bay at N.Y. Jets (Line : NYJ – 6, O/U : 42.5) Jets 27 Packers 20

11) Carolina at St. Louis (Line : STL – 3, O/U : 37) Rams 19 Panthers 18

10) Minnesota at New England (Line : NEP – 6.5, O/U : 44) Patriots 26 Vikings 18

9) Houston at Indianapolis (Line : IND – 5.5, O/U : 50) Colts 29 Texans 22

8 ) Washington at Detroit (Line : DET – 2.5, O/U : 44.5) Lions 25 Redskins 20

7) Miami at Cincinnati (Line : CIN – 1.5, O/U : 43.5) Dolphins 27 Bengals 26

6) Seattle at Oakland (Line : OAK – 2.5, O/U : 42) Raiders 24 Seahawks 18

5) Buffalo at Kansas City (Line : KAN – 7.5, O/U : 46) Chiefs 38 Bills 26

4) Tampa Bay at Arizona (Line : ARZ – 3, O/U : 39) Buccaneers 23 Cardinals 18

3) Jacksonville at Dallas (Line : DAL – 6.5, O/U : 42.5) Cowboys 36 Jaguars 21

2) Denver at San Francisco (Line : SFO – 2, O/U : 42) 49ers 30 Broncos 16

1) Tennessee at San Diego (Line : SDC – 3.5, O/U : 44.5) Titans 27 Chargers 19

Good luck in Week 8!

Categories: NFL

Oct. 23 – Week 7 Picks

October 23, 2010 1 comment

Hey – Got a ton of work work to do over this weekend, so I’m just gunna quickly post the picks with no quick hits:

14) San Francisco at Carolina (Line : SFO – 3, O/U : 35.5) 49ers 21 Panthers 19

13) New England at San Diego (Line : SDC – 2.5, O/U : 48) Chargers 25 Patriots 22

12) Cleveland at New Orleans (Line : NOR – 13, O/U : 43) Saints 27 Browns 15

11) Oakland at Denver (Line : DEN – 7.5, O/U : 42.5) Broncos 27 Raiders 18

10) Minnesota at Green Bay (Line : GBP – 2.5, O/U : 44) Packers 23 Vikings 22

9) Jacksonville at Kansas City (Line : KAN – 9.5, O/U : 37.5) Chiefs 30 Jaguars 19

8 ) Cincinnati at Atlanta (Line : ATL – 3.5, O/U : 43.5) Falcons 24 Bengals 23

7) Arizona at Seattle (Line : SEA – 7, O/U : 40) Seahawks 24 Cardinals 14

6) Pittsburgh at Miami (Line : PIT – 3, O/U : 41) Steelers 26 Dolphins 19

5) Washington at Chicago (Line : CHI – 3, O/U : 40) Redskins 21 Bears 19

4) St. Louis at Tampa Bay (Line : TAM – 3, O/U : 38.5) Rams 22 Buccaneers 20

3) Buffalo at Baltimore (Line : BAL – 13, O/U : 40) Ravens 38 Bills 20

2) Philadelphia at Tennessee (Line : TEN – 3, O/U : 42.5) Titans 29 Eagles 20

1) N.Y. Giants at Dallas (Line : DAL – 3, O/U : 44) Giants 28 Cowboys 21

Good luck in Week 7!

Categories: NFL

Oct. 20 – Week 6 Review

October 20, 2010 Leave a comment

It  was an average week for the picks this week. I went 6-7-1, but got the top 2 picks right. Overall, the picks are still hovering around the 50% mark, but I am now 4-2 on my best bets. Quick hit reviews for last week :

14) Tennessee at Jacksonville (Line : TEN – 3, O/U : 45) Jacksonville has looked much better the last 2 weeks, and will try to make it 3 in a row against a game Tennessee team. The Titans need to show they play as well at home as they do away. The pick here is the Titans: Titans 31 Jaguars 27. Actual score : Titans 30 Jaguars 3 The Titans dominated , and MJD struggled. More interesting is that ESPN’s requesting the coaches to take TOs at the end of the game got CJ a TD. I didn’t know ESPN had that power. A win on the pick, but an over/under loss.

13) Atlanta at Philadelphia (Line : PHI – 2.5, O/U : 42.5) It will be Kevin Kolb again – so we wont see the second coming of Michael Vick vs. Atlanta. Philly looks to rebound off a disappointing loss to the Redskins at home, while Atlanta will try to hold their slim lead in the NFC South. The model likes a close battle here: Eagles 21 Falcons 19  Actual score : Eagles 31 Falcons 17 Kevin Kolb will get another week after an impressive win over Atlanta. That was a scary hit on DeSean Jackson – but it was legal. The Falcons are now only half a game up on the Saints. A loss on both sides here.

12) Miami at Green Bay (Line : GBP – 4, O/U : 45.5) How will the Packers adjust with their slew of injuries?  Rodgers is supposed to play, but will he be 100%? The loss of Finley really hurts. Miami will be hungry after losing to both the Jets and Pats in Miami. The pick here is Green Bay, in a close contest : Packers 24 Dolphins 19. Actual score : Dolphins 23 Packers 20 Injuries are truly taking a toll on Green Bay. Miami has now scored wins in both NFC road games. Now if only they could win a division game. A loss for the mode, but an over/under win.

11) Seattle at Chicago (Line : CHI – 6.5, O/U : 37.5) Jay Cutler returns to a 4-1 Bear team. The Seahawks continue to be a horrible road team. Look for the trend to continue, as the Bears will try to keep their 1.5 game lead in the NFC North : Bears 22 Seahawks 14. Actual score : Seahawks 23 Bears 20 Seattle scores a nice, rare road win. Chicago is a real mess – they cant protect Cutler, and they don’t run the ball. I’m not sure if the Bears fit the Mike Martz model. Losses all around in this game.

10) Baltimore at New England (Line : NEP – 2.5, O/U : 45) Ray Rice broke out last week – will the Pats adjust, or will the Ravens go on a big run? How will Wes Welker adjust to life without Randy Moss? This should be a tooth and nail contest according to the model : Patriots 25 Ravens 24. Actual score : Patriots 23 Bears 20 23-20 was the score of the week (see last 2 games). It took a long OT session for the Pats to take this game. The post-Moss era starts with a win. The Ravens are now behind the Steelers in the AFC North  Losses on the line and the over/under.

9) San Diego at St. Louis (Line : SDC – 8, O/U : 45) The Chargers have been just awful on the road, losing to teams they should supposedly beat three times. Will they go four for four? The Rams good streak on D game to a frightening halt against the Lions – will they be able to handle Philip Rivers? The pick is the Bolts win, but not by 8: Chargers 24 Rams 18. Actual score : Rams 20 Chargers 17 I think its safe to say we will see a lot of poor football this year in these West vs. West matchups. The Rams D returned to form. The Chargers may not win a road game this season. Wins on both ends here.

8 ) Indianapolis at Washington (Line : IND – 3, O/U : 44) The surprising 3-2 Redskins will try to make it two straight wins against the Packers and Colts – no easy feat. Indy comes off a rough win against KC, and will be tested here – as they have a good pass defense. The model likes a Redskins win: Redskins 21 Colts 20. Actual score : Colts 27 Redskins 24 The Colts faced a tough pass defense – so they ran the ball – and they did it well. Joseph Addai had a great day. The Skins made it close, but a last minute pick by McNabb sealed it. A push on the line, and an over/under loss.

7) Dallas at Minnesota (Line : MIN – 1.5, O/U : 44.5) When I first saw this game on the schedule, I thought two good teams will fight it out, with Dallas looking for revenge against the Vikings for running up the score. Now it’s a different story of survivor – the loser goes to 1-4, and is most likely a playoff long shot. The pick is Minny: Vikings 27 Cowboys 21. Actual score : Vikings 24 Cowboys 21 This game was close most of the way, with an E.J, Henderson pick of Tony Romo leading to the game winning FG. Penalties hurt the now 1-4 Cowboys, who go home (where they haven’t won yet) to face the Giants. The model almost nailed this one, and won on both the line and the over/under.

6) N.Y. Jets at Denver (Line : NYJ – 3, O/U : 41.5) The streaking Jets fly into Mile High to take on a Denver team that is very good at home. The key matchup here will be the high octane Denver pass offense against Darrelle Revis and the strong Jet pass defense. The pick is the Jets by a TD :  Jets 30 Broncos 23. Actual score : Jets 24 Broncos 20 The Jets D bent, but did not break against the high powered Denver passing game. The Jets are now 5-1 heading into the bye. A usually good Bronco team at home is now 1-2 in Mile High this year. Wins on both ends here.

5) Cleveland at Pittsburgh (Line : PIT – 13.5, O/U : 37.5) The Browns will go with rookie Colt McCoy at QB against the aggressive Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers will also have a new QB – old yet new – Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are heavily favored here, by 13.5 – which the model thinks is a bit much:  Steelers 24 Browns 15. Actual score : Steelers 28 Browns 10 Well 13.5 may have seemed like a lot of points – to the Big Ben-less Steelers. Roethlisberger hit TD passes to Hines Ward and Mike Wallace in this win. A rough debut for Colt McCoy. A loss on the pick, but an over/under win.

4) Oakland at San Francisco (Line : SFO – 6.5, O/U : 41.5) The Raiders come off their nice win against the Chargers to travel across the bay to face the winless 49ers. Oakland will continue to trust Jason Campbell, while the Niners will give Alex Smith one more week to prove he can turn things around. The prediction is San Francisco gets their first win, but by the slimmest of margins:  49ers 25 Raiders 24. Actual score : 49ers 17 Raiders 9 The Niners finally scored their first win in a pretty ugly game. Alex Smith had his troubles, but Frank Gore was a difference maker. Oakland could not carry over the magic from last week’s upset win. Losses on both sides here.

3) New Orleans at Tampa Bay (Line : NOR – 4, O/U : 43.5) :The Saints come into this contest at 3-2, actually half a game behind the Bucs. Tampa will try to continue to surprise, and a win here would solidify their position as the runner-up to the Falcons in the NFC South. The model likes a Buc surprise  Buccaneers 25 Saints 22. Actual score : Saints 31 Buccaneers 6 This one was never close. The Saints looked like last year’s Saints, while the Bucs also looked like last year’s version. With a contest against the Browns this week, will the Saints start a big run?  Losses on the prediction and the over/under.

2) Detroit at N.Y. Giants (Line : NYG – 10, O/U : 44.5) The Giants have won impressively the last 2 weeks – a 24 point win against Houston, and a 14 point win against Chicago. The Lions scored only their first win last week – but it was very impressive, a 38 point romp. The Lions have been in every game except one, and the pick here is that trend continues: Giants 24 Lions 22. Actual score : Giants 28 Lions 20 The Lions made a good effort behind their third string QB Drew Stanton after Shaun Hill hurt his arm. The Giants have looked very good the past several weeks, but will face a test against a desperate Dallas team next Monday night. Wins on both sides here.

1) Kansas City at Houston (Line : HOU – 4.5, O/U : 44) The  Chiefs may have lost for the first time last week, but they still impressed Indy with their strong D. Houston has been in a tailspin, losing to Dallas and the Giants at home in 2 of the last 3 weeks. The model likes them to make it 3 straight home losses: Chiefs 24 Texans 20. Actual score : Texans 35 Chiefs 31 This was a very entertaining back and forth contest. The chiefs showed they can score some points, but the defense faltered. The Texans rebounded off a disappointing home loss, and are tied at the top of the AFC South. A best bet win, but an over/under loss.

Categories: NFL

Oct. 16 – Week 6 Picks

October 17, 2010 Leave a comment

Sorry for the last minute post – I’ve been busy enough that I’ll be blogging these picks while at my local Saturday night poker game……

14) Tennessee at Jacksonville (Line : TEN – 3, O/U : 45) Jacksonville has looked much better the last 2 weeks, and will try to make it 3 in a row against a game Tennessee team. The Titans need to show they play as well at home as they do away. The pick here is the Titans: Titans 31 Jaguars 27.

13) Atlanta at Philadelphia (Line : PHI – 2.5, O/U : 42.5) It will be Kevin Kolb again – so we wont see the second coming of Michael Vick vs. Atlanta. Philly looks to rebound off a disappointing loss to the Redskins at home, while Atlanta will try to hold their slim lead in the NFC South. The model likes a close battle here: Eagles 21 Falcons 19 

12) Miami at Green Bay (Line : GBP – 4, O/U : 45.5) How will the Packers adjust with their slew of injuries?  Rodgers is supposed to play, but will he be 100%? The loss of Finley really hurts. Miami will be hungry after losing to both the Jets and Pats in Miami. The pick here is Green Bay, in a close contest : Packers 24 Dolphins 19.

11) Seattle at Chicago (Line : CHI – 6.5, O/U : 37.5) Jay Cutler returns to a 4-1 Bear team. The Seahawks continue to be a horrible road team. Look for the trend to continue, as the Bears will try to keep their 1.5 game lead in the NFC North : Bears 22 Seahawks 14.

10) Baltimore at New England (Line : NEP – 2.5, O/U : 45) Ray Rice broke out last week – will the Pats adjust, or will the Ravens go on a big run? How will Wes Welker adjust to life without Randy Moss? This should be a tooth and nail contest according to the model : Patriots 25 Ravens 24.

9) San Diego at St. Louis (Line : SDC – 8, O/U : 45) The Chargers have been just awful on the road, losing to teams they should supposedly beat three times. Will they go four for four? The Rams good streak on D game to a frightening halt against the Lions – will they be able to handle Philip Rivers? The pick is the Bolts win, but not by 8: Chargers 24 Rams 18.

8 ) Indianapolis at Washington (Line : IND – 3, O/U : 44) The surprising 3-2 Redskins will try to make it two straight wins against the Packers and Colts – no easy feat. Indy comes off a rough win against KC, and will be tested here – as they have a good pass defense. The model likes a Redskins win: Redskins 21 Colts 20.

7) Dallas at Minnesota (Line : MIN – 1.5, O/U : 44.5) When I first saw this game on the schedule, I thought two good teams will fight it out, with Dallas looking for revenge against the Vikings for running up the score. Now it’s a different story of survivor – the loser goes to 1-4, and is most likely a playoff long shot. The pick is Minny: Vikings 27 Cowboys 21.

6) N.Y. Jets at Denver (Line : NYJ – 3, O/U : 41.5) The streaking Jets fly into Mile High to take on a Denver team that is very good at home. The key matchup here will be the high octane Denver pass offense against Darrelle Revis and the strong Jet pass defense.The pick is the Jets by a TD :  Jets 30 Broncos 23.

5) Cleveland at Pittsburgh (Line : PIT – 13.5, O/U : 37.5) The Browns will go with rookie Colt McCoy at QB against the aggressive Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers will also have a new QB – old yet new – Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are heavily favored here, by 13.5 – which the model thinks is a bit much:  Steelers 24 Browns 15.

Can I pick up a hand already?

4) Oakland at San Francisco (Line : SFO – 6.5, O/U : 41.5) The Raiders come off their nice win against the Chargers to travel across the bay to face the winless 49ers. Oakland will continue to trust Jason Campbell, while the Niners will give Alex Smith one more week to prove he can turn things around. The prediction is San Francisco gets their first win, but by the slimmest of margins:  49ers 25 Raiders 24.

3) New Orleans at Tampa Bay (Line : NOR – 4, O/U : 43.5) :The Saints come into this contest at 3-2, actually half a game behind the Bucs. Tampa will try to continue to surprise, and a win here would solidify their position as the runner-up to the Falcons in the NFC South. The model likes a Buc surprise  Buccaneers 25 Saints 22.

2) Detroit at N.Y. Giants (Line : NYG – 10, O/U : 44.5) The Giants have won impressively the last 2 weeks – a 24 point win against Houston, and a 14 point win against Chicago. The Lions scored only their first win last week – but it was very impressive, a 38 point romp. The Lions have been in every game except one, and the pick here is that trend continues: Giants 24 Lions 22.

1) Kansas City at Houston (Line : HOU – 4.5, O/U : 44) The  Chiefs may have lost for the first time last week, but they still impressed Indy with their strong D. Houston has been in a tailspin, losing to Dallas and the Giants at home in 2 of the last 3 weeks. The model likes them to make it 3 straight home losses: Chiefs 24 Texans 20.

Thoughts on Week 6? Let me know.

Categories: NFL

Oct. 13 – Week 5 Review

October 13, 2010 Leave a comment

Week 4 was an unusual week for me. Overall I went 9-5 on the picks, which at first glance seems good, but the 5 losers were 5 of my top 6 confidence picks. Interestingly, on the over/unders, I went 8-6, but 7-1 on the top 8 confidence in that category. So go figure that out, Sherlock. I’m now 39-34 on the season, a discouraging 7-10 in the top 4, and 3-2 on best bets. Here are quick reviews of the Week 5 games:

Julius Peppers - courtesy Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America

14) Chicago at Carolina (Line : CHI – 2.5, O/U : 35.5) The model has the Bears winning by 2.57, so this contest is awful close to the line. Jay Cutler should be back, and the Bears should get well against a offensively challenged Carolina team in a defensive struggle: Bears 18 Panthers 15. Actual Score: Bears 23 Panthers 6 How do you know you are a really bad football team? When the opposing QB looks lost, throws 4 picks, and you still lose by 17. Welcome to the 2010 Panthers. The Bears can thank Julius Peppers’ revenge game for this win, and are just happy to survive the week without Jay Cutler. Awin on both ends in this one.

13) Green Bay at Washington (Line : GBP – 2.5, O/U : 44) Another game here that is close to the line – the model has the Pack winning by 2.15 – A contest of two teams without their running backs, so McNabb and Rodgers should air it out here: Packers 23 Redskins 21. Actual Score: Redskins 16 Packers 13 This was a really rough loss for Green Bay. Not only do they essentially fall 1.5 games behind the division leading Bears, but they may also lose Aaron Rodgers to a concussion for next week’s jaunt against Miami. On the other side, it looks like Washington will be a contender all year – something they haven’t seen for a while in DC. Mark a win on the line, and a loss on the over/under.

12) Atlanta at Cleveland (Line : ATL – 3, O/U : 40.5) The Browns continue to look like an improved team every week. They will try to take a second straight game at home with Jake Delhomme returning to the helm. The Falcons will try to make it 4 straight – the model says they do: Falcons 24 Browns 19. Actual Score: Falcons 20 Browns 10 Very quietly, the Falcons have put themselves way ahead of the Saints in the NFC South. Michael Turner had a very impressive outing in this one. The Browns went through 2 QBs in the loss, and now look to Colt McCoy next week against the Steelers. A winning pick, and an over/under loss.

11) Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (Line : CIN – 6.5, O/U : 38) The Bucs come off their bye week and visit a Bengal team that finally found their passing game last week. Look for that trend to continue this week, but the Tampa defense should keep it tight: Bengals 24 Buccaneers 19. Actual Score: Buccaneers 24 Bengals 21 The surprising Bucs moved to 3-1 with this last second FG win against the Cats. Mike Williams and Ernest Graham led Tampa to the road win, while one has to wonder if Cincy will look to this game when they are fighting for a wild card in December. A win on both ends here.

10)  N.Y. Giants at Houston (Line : HOU – 3, O/U : 47.5) New York was impressive on defense against Chicago, but still needs to make more strides on offense to outscore the Texans. Will they be able to stop the Houston running game? The model likes a close one: Giants 22 Texans 21. Actual Score: Giants 34 Texans 10 It looks like after a big start against the Colts, the Texans passing game has completely fallen apart. If it weren’t for the emergence of Arian Foster, this team could really be in trouble. The Giants scored a big road win here, and will try to keep up the big scoring for a third straight week when they host Detroit. Wins on both the line and the over/under in this game.

9) Minnesota at N.Y. Jets (Line : NYJ – 4, O/U : 39) Against most teams the addition of Randy Moss would open up the field for Adrian Peterson – but this is the Jets, and with Darrelle Revis returning, he should lock up Moss by himself. The pick is the Jets continue to roll: Jets 25 Vikings 17. Actual Score: Jets 29 Vikings 20 Another frustrating loss for this Vikings fan. Another game, another Favre pick to lose it. The Jets were very impressive on defensive, and were able to do what few teams can on offense – run on Minnesota. The Dallas/Minnesota matchup next week might as well be a playoff game – the loser goes to 1-4.  Wins on both ends here.

8 ) Tennessee at Dallas  (Line : DAL – 6.5, O/U : 41.5) Tennessee will look to recover after a surprising loss to Denver, but will have a tough task against a Cowboy team coming off a bye. The Titans play well on the road though, and the prediction is they keep this one close: Cowboys 19 Titans 17. Actual Score: Titans 34 Cowboys 27 An 0-2 start at home cannot make Jerry Jones very pleased. The Boys have to turn to Felix Jones on the ground – Marion Barber is a shell of his former self. What happened to the vaunted Dallas D? It almost seems Demarcus Ware has gone into hiding. The Titans have now beaten both the Giants and Cowboys on the road – an impressive feat. A winning prediction, but an over/under loss.

7) Jacksonville at Buffalo (Line : Pickem, O/U : 41) If there will be a letdown for the Jags after their big win over Indy, this will be a big letdown. Buffalo will look to Ryan Fitzpatrick to take advantage of a porous Jag D. The pick is Jacksonville: Jaguars 29 Bills 22. Actual Score: Jaguars 36 Bills 26 The Bills are slowly getting better on the offensive side of the ball – Fred Jackson gives them a little more versatility, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked much better than Edwards – but defensively they still have ways to go. This gives the Jags two nice wins in a row, putting them at 3-2 heading into a big clash with rival Tennessee on Monday night. Wins on the line and the over/under here.

6) New Orleans at Arizona (Line : NOR – 6.5, O/U : 45) Is Max Hall the answer? Arizona hopes so, but they have other problems – they have given up a ton of rushing yards, and with the prospect of Pierre Thomas returning, the model likes the Saints: Saints 30 Cardinals 15. Actual Score: Cardinals 30 Saints 20 Looks like Max Hall will be getting another start. The Cards won with good defense and a solid, yet unspectacular debut by Hall. The Saints are now one loss away from tying their total from last year. They hope to have Pierre Thomas back for their game with division foe Tampa Bay. Losses on both ends in this one.

5) Kansas City at Indianapolis (Line : IND – 8, O/U : 45) The Chiefs have a tough assignment off the bye week – defending their perfect record at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts have yet to establish the run, but will they need to? The model likes a close contest: Chiefs 21 Colts 20. Actual Score: Colts 19 Chiefs 9 Kansas City kept this contest close for most of the game, trading field goals with the Colts until the very end. The KC defense was impressive, not allowing Peyton to hit big strikes down the field. It may be their first tally in the loss column, but Chiefs fans should be encouraged by the effort. Pre-season predictions for this team look to be way off. A loss on the line, but an over/under win.

4) Denver at Baltimore (Line : BAL – 7, O/U : 38.5) The Broncos look for a second straight big win on the road. The 3-1 Ravens will try to be more impressive at home, but their weak secondary will be put to the test against the Denver passing attack. The pick is an upset: Broncos 20 Ravens 18. Actual Score: Ravens 31 Broncos 17 Denver was unable to make it two road wins in a row, as they were never really in this game at all. Credit has to be given to Baltimore’s secondary – they lost Ed Reed and Dominique Foxworth, yet they are rated number one against the pass – and they bottled up the league’s number one passing team in this one. Denver will need to do better against the run, especially next week against the Jets. Losses on both ends here.

3) San Diego at Oakland (Line : SDC – 6, O/U : 45) In two games on the road, the Chargers have lost to teams that should be inferior (Seattle and KC). In two games at home, they have won convincingly (Arixona and Jacksonville). Which team will show up in Oakland? The good one: Chargers 31 Raiders 16. Actual Score: Raiders 35 Chargers 27 Well that makes two straight years Oakland has killed survivor pool players. Last year it was a big win against a surging Philly team, and this year they break an age-long streak losing to the Bolts. Special teams killed San Diego here – 9 points for Oakland due to blocked kicks would have had the Chargers in the win column. They have now lost 3 road games to KC, Oakland, and Seattle. Ouch. A loss on the pick, and an over/under win.

2) St. Louis at Detroit (Line : DET – 3, O/U : 42.5) The line in this one is most likely based on a nice performance by the Lions last week – but, as you’ve already read, I’m big on the Rams D, and so is the model. Take the Rams here: Rams 28 Lions 19. Actual Score: Lions 44 Rams 6 The honeymoon is over – the one between myself and the Rams D that is. Detroit exploded for a ton of points – primarily through the passing game. St. Louis could not get anything going on offense – Bradford struggled, and Steven Jackson was a non-factor. A loss on the pick, and an over/under win.

1) Philadelphia at San Francisco  (Line : SFO – 3.5, O/U : 38)Kevin Kolb gets the start, and he needs to do better than he did in Week 1, or last week. The Niners just need to do better, period. Their first home game was close – will they get win #1 here? The prediction is no: Eagles 24 49ers 12. Actual Score: Eagles 27 49ers 24 Kevin Kolb looked sharp, and the Eagles edged the hapless Niners. Alex Smith was inconsistent yet again, and Mike Singletary pointed it out in the national spotlight. He will get another start, but if the Niners cant beat neighbor Oakland at home, I’d say the bell tolls for Smith – and Singletary. A winning best bet, and a loss on the line.

Hockey Update : Through 35 games, the model is basically even. I’ve been doing poorly on the lines, but well on the over/unders. Overall I’m up about 15 units without the vig, and down 5 units with it. Hopefully it will improve as this season’s sample increases.

I’ll have Week 6 up shortly.

Categories: NFL, NHL

Oct. 6 – Week 5 Picks

October 6, 2010 1 comment

Without further ado, the Week 5 picks:

14) Chicago at Carolina (Line : CHI – 2.5, O/U : 35.5) The model has the Bears winning by 2.57, so this contest is awful close to the line. Jay Cutler should be back, and the Bears should get well against a offensively challenged Carolina team in a defensive struggle: Bears 18 Panthers 15.

13) Green Bay at Washington (Line : GBP – 2.5, O/U : 44) Another game here that is close to the line – the model has the Pack winning by 2.15 – A contest of two teams without their running backs, so McNabb and Rodgers should air it out here: Packers 23 Redskins 21.

12) Atlanta at Cleveland (Line : ATL – 3, O/U : 40.5) The Browns continue to look like an improved team every week. They will try to take a second straight game at home with Jake Delhomme returning to the helm. The Falcons will try to make it 4 straight – the model says they do: Falcons 24 Browns 19.

11) Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (Line : CIN – 6.5, O/U : 38) The Bucs come off their bye week and visit a Bengal team that finally found their passing game last week. Look for that trend to continue this week, but the Tampa defense should keep it tight: Bengals 24 Buccaneers 19.

10)  N.Y. Giants at Houston (Line : HOU – 3, O/U : 47.5) New York was impressive on defense against Chicago, but still needs to make more strides on offense to outscore the Texans. Will they be able to stop the Houston running game? The model likes a close one: Giants 22 Texans 21.

9) Minnesota at N.Y. Jets (Line : NYJ – 4, O/U : 39) Against most teams the addition of Randy Moss would open up the field for Adrian Peterson – but this is the Jets, and with Darrelle Revis returning, he should lock up Moss by himself. The pick is the Jets continue to roll: Jets 25 Vikings 17.

8 ) Tennessee at Dallas  (Line : DAL – 6.5, O/U : 41.5) Tennessee will look to recover after a surprising loss to Denver, but will have a tough task against a Cowboy team coming off a bye. The Titans play well on the road though, and the prediction is they keep this one close: Cowboys 19 Titans 17.

7) Jacksonville at Buffalo (Line : Pickem, O/U : 41) If there will be a letdown for the Jags after their big win over Indy, this will be a big letdown. Buffalo will look to Ryan Fitzpatrick to take advantage of a porous Jag D. The pick is Jacksonville: Jaguars 29 Bills 22.

6) New Orleans at Arizona (Line : NOR – 6.5, O/U : 45) Is Max Hall the answer? Arizona hopes so, but they have other problems – they have given up a ton of rushing yards, and with the prospect of Pierre Thomas returning, the model likes the Saints: Saints 30 Cardinals 15.

5) Kansas City at Indianapolis (Line : IND – 8, O/U : 45) The Chiefs have a tough assignment off the bye week – defending their perfect record at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts have yet to establish the run, but will they need to? The model likes a close contest: Chiefs 21 Colts 20.

4) Denver at Baltimore (Line : BAL – 7, O/U : 38.5) The Broncos look for a second straight big win on the road. The 3-1 Ravens will try to be more impressive at home, but their weak secondary will be put to the test against the Denver passing attack. The pick is an upset: Broncos 20 Ravens 18.

3) San Diego at Oakland (Line : SDC – 6, O/U : 45) In two games on the road, the Chargers have lost to teams that should be inferior (Seattle and KC). In two games at home, they have won convincingly (Arixona and Jacksonville). Which team will show up in Oakland? The good one: Chargers 31 Raiders 16.

2) St. Louis at Detroit (Line : DET – 3, O/U : 42.5) The line in this one is most likely based on a nice performance by the Lions last week – but, as you’ve already read, I’m big on the Rams D, and so is the model. Take the Rams here: Rams 28 Lions 19.

1) Philadelphia at San Francisco  (Line : SFO – 3.5, O/U : 38)Kevin Kolb gets the start, and he needs to do better than he did in Week 1, or last week. The Niners just need to do better, period. Their first home game was close – will they get win #1 here? The prediction is no: Eagles 24 49ers 12.

Thoughts on these picks? Let me know.

Categories: NFL
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