Home > NFL > Oct. 20 – Week 6 Review

Oct. 20 – Week 6 Review

It  was an average week for the picks this week. I went 6-7-1, but got the top 2 picks right. Overall, the picks are still hovering around the 50% mark, but I am now 4-2 on my best bets. Quick hit reviews for last week :

14) Tennessee at Jacksonville (Line : TEN – 3, O/U : 45) Jacksonville has looked much better the last 2 weeks, and will try to make it 3 in a row against a game Tennessee team. The Titans need to show they play as well at home as they do away. The pick here is the Titans: Titans 31 Jaguars 27. Actual score : Titans 30 Jaguars 3 The Titans dominated , and MJD struggled. More interesting is that ESPN’s requesting the coaches to take TOs at the end of the game got CJ a TD. I didn’t know ESPN had that power. A win on the pick, but an over/under loss.

13) Atlanta at Philadelphia (Line : PHI – 2.5, O/U : 42.5) It will be Kevin Kolb again – so we wont see the second coming of Michael Vick vs. Atlanta. Philly looks to rebound off a disappointing loss to the Redskins at home, while Atlanta will try to hold their slim lead in the NFC South. The model likes a close battle here: Eagles 21 Falcons 19  Actual score : Eagles 31 Falcons 17 Kevin Kolb will get another week after an impressive win over Atlanta. That was a scary hit on DeSean Jackson – but it was legal. The Falcons are now only half a game up on the Saints. A loss on both sides here.

12) Miami at Green Bay (Line : GBP – 4, O/U : 45.5) How will the Packers adjust with their slew of injuries?  Rodgers is supposed to play, but will he be 100%? The loss of Finley really hurts. Miami will be hungry after losing to both the Jets and Pats in Miami. The pick here is Green Bay, in a close contest : Packers 24 Dolphins 19. Actual score : Dolphins 23 Packers 20 Injuries are truly taking a toll on Green Bay. Miami has now scored wins in both NFC road games. Now if only they could win a division game. A loss for the mode, but an over/under win.

11) Seattle at Chicago (Line : CHI – 6.5, O/U : 37.5) Jay Cutler returns to a 4-1 Bear team. The Seahawks continue to be a horrible road team. Look for the trend to continue, as the Bears will try to keep their 1.5 game lead in the NFC North : Bears 22 Seahawks 14. Actual score : Seahawks 23 Bears 20 Seattle scores a nice, rare road win. Chicago is a real mess – they cant protect Cutler, and they don’t run the ball. I’m not sure if the Bears fit the Mike Martz model. Losses all around in this game.

10) Baltimore at New England (Line : NEP – 2.5, O/U : 45) Ray Rice broke out last week – will the Pats adjust, or will the Ravens go on a big run? How will Wes Welker adjust to life without Randy Moss? This should be a tooth and nail contest according to the model : Patriots 25 Ravens 24. Actual score : Patriots 23 Bears 20 23-20 was the score of the week (see last 2 games). It took a long OT session for the Pats to take this game. The post-Moss era starts with a win. The Ravens are now behind the Steelers in the AFC North  Losses on the line and the over/under.

9) San Diego at St. Louis (Line : SDC – 8, O/U : 45) The Chargers have been just awful on the road, losing to teams they should supposedly beat three times. Will they go four for four? The Rams good streak on D game to a frightening halt against the Lions – will they be able to handle Philip Rivers? The pick is the Bolts win, but not by 8: Chargers 24 Rams 18. Actual score : Rams 20 Chargers 17 I think its safe to say we will see a lot of poor football this year in these West vs. West matchups. The Rams D returned to form. The Chargers may not win a road game this season. Wins on both ends here.

8 ) Indianapolis at Washington (Line : IND – 3, O/U : 44) The surprising 3-2 Redskins will try to make it two straight wins against the Packers and Colts – no easy feat. Indy comes off a rough win against KC, and will be tested here – as they have a good pass defense. The model likes a Redskins win: Redskins 21 Colts 20. Actual score : Colts 27 Redskins 24 The Colts faced a tough pass defense – so they ran the ball – and they did it well. Joseph Addai had a great day. The Skins made it close, but a last minute pick by McNabb sealed it. A push on the line, and an over/under loss.

7) Dallas at Minnesota (Line : MIN – 1.5, O/U : 44.5) When I first saw this game on the schedule, I thought two good teams will fight it out, with Dallas looking for revenge against the Vikings for running up the score. Now it’s a different story of survivor – the loser goes to 1-4, and is most likely a playoff long shot. The pick is Minny: Vikings 27 Cowboys 21. Actual score : Vikings 24 Cowboys 21 This game was close most of the way, with an E.J, Henderson pick of Tony Romo leading to the game winning FG. Penalties hurt the now 1-4 Cowboys, who go home (where they haven’t won yet) to face the Giants. The model almost nailed this one, and won on both the line and the over/under.

6) N.Y. Jets at Denver (Line : NYJ – 3, O/U : 41.5) The streaking Jets fly into Mile High to take on a Denver team that is very good at home. The key matchup here will be the high octane Denver pass offense against Darrelle Revis and the strong Jet pass defense. The pick is the Jets by a TD :  Jets 30 Broncos 23. Actual score : Jets 24 Broncos 20 The Jets D bent, but did not break against the high powered Denver passing game. The Jets are now 5-1 heading into the bye. A usually good Bronco team at home is now 1-2 in Mile High this year. Wins on both ends here.

5) Cleveland at Pittsburgh (Line : PIT – 13.5, O/U : 37.5) The Browns will go with rookie Colt McCoy at QB against the aggressive Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers will also have a new QB – old yet new – Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are heavily favored here, by 13.5 – which the model thinks is a bit much:  Steelers 24 Browns 15. Actual score : Steelers 28 Browns 10 Well 13.5 may have seemed like a lot of points – to the Big Ben-less Steelers. Roethlisberger hit TD passes to Hines Ward and Mike Wallace in this win. A rough debut for Colt McCoy. A loss on the pick, but an over/under win.

4) Oakland at San Francisco (Line : SFO – 6.5, O/U : 41.5) The Raiders come off their nice win against the Chargers to travel across the bay to face the winless 49ers. Oakland will continue to trust Jason Campbell, while the Niners will give Alex Smith one more week to prove he can turn things around. The prediction is San Francisco gets their first win, but by the slimmest of margins:  49ers 25 Raiders 24. Actual score : 49ers 17 Raiders 9 The Niners finally scored their first win in a pretty ugly game. Alex Smith had his troubles, but Frank Gore was a difference maker. Oakland could not carry over the magic from last week’s upset win. Losses on both sides here.

3) New Orleans at Tampa Bay (Line : NOR – 4, O/U : 43.5) :The Saints come into this contest at 3-2, actually half a game behind the Bucs. Tampa will try to continue to surprise, and a win here would solidify their position as the runner-up to the Falcons in the NFC South. The model likes a Buc surprise  Buccaneers 25 Saints 22. Actual score : Saints 31 Buccaneers 6 This one was never close. The Saints looked like last year’s Saints, while the Bucs also looked like last year’s version. With a contest against the Browns this week, will the Saints start a big run?  Losses on the prediction and the over/under.

2) Detroit at N.Y. Giants (Line : NYG – 10, O/U : 44.5) The Giants have won impressively the last 2 weeks – a 24 point win against Houston, and a 14 point win against Chicago. The Lions scored only their first win last week – but it was very impressive, a 38 point romp. The Lions have been in every game except one, and the pick here is that trend continues: Giants 24 Lions 22. Actual score : Giants 28 Lions 20 The Lions made a good effort behind their third string QB Drew Stanton after Shaun Hill hurt his arm. The Giants have looked very good the past several weeks, but will face a test against a desperate Dallas team next Monday night. Wins on both sides here.

1) Kansas City at Houston (Line : HOU – 4.5, O/U : 44) The  Chiefs may have lost for the first time last week, but they still impressed Indy with their strong D. Houston has been in a tailspin, losing to Dallas and the Giants at home in 2 of the last 3 weeks. The model likes them to make it 3 straight home losses: Chiefs 24 Texans 20. Actual score : Texans 35 Chiefs 31 This was a very entertaining back and forth contest. The chiefs showed they can score some points, but the defense faltered. The Texans rebounded off a disappointing home loss, and are tied at the top of the AFC South. A best bet win, but an over/under loss.

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