Oct. 16 – Week 6 Picks

Sorry for the last minute post – I’ve been busy enough that I’ll be blogging these picks while at my local Saturday night poker game……

14) Tennessee at Jacksonville (Line : TEN – 3, O/U : 45) Jacksonville has looked much better the last 2 weeks, and will try to make it 3 in a row against a game Tennessee team. The Titans need to show they play as well at home as they do away. The pick here is the Titans: Titans 31 Jaguars 27.

13) Atlanta at Philadelphia (Line : PHI – 2.5, O/U : 42.5) It will be Kevin Kolb again – so we wont see the second coming of Michael Vick vs. Atlanta. Philly looks to rebound off a disappointing loss to the Redskins at home, while Atlanta will try to hold their slim lead in the NFC South. The model likes a close battle here: Eagles 21 Falcons 19 

12) Miami at Green Bay (Line : GBP – 4, O/U : 45.5) How will the Packers adjust with their slew of injuries?  Rodgers is supposed to play, but will he be 100%? The loss of Finley really hurts. Miami will be hungry after losing to both the Jets and Pats in Miami. The pick here is Green Bay, in a close contest : Packers 24 Dolphins 19.

11) Seattle at Chicago (Line : CHI – 6.5, O/U : 37.5) Jay Cutler returns to a 4-1 Bear team. The Seahawks continue to be a horrible road team. Look for the trend to continue, as the Bears will try to keep their 1.5 game lead in the NFC North : Bears 22 Seahawks 14.

10) Baltimore at New England (Line : NEP – 2.5, O/U : 45) Ray Rice broke out last week – will the Pats adjust, or will the Ravens go on a big run? How will Wes Welker adjust to life without Randy Moss? This should be a tooth and nail contest according to the model : Patriots 25 Ravens 24.

9) San Diego at St. Louis (Line : SDC – 8, O/U : 45) The Chargers have been just awful on the road, losing to teams they should supposedly beat three times. Will they go four for four? The Rams good streak on D game to a frightening halt against the Lions – will they be able to handle Philip Rivers? The pick is the Bolts win, but not by 8: Chargers 24 Rams 18.

8 ) Indianapolis at Washington (Line : IND – 3, O/U : 44) The surprising 3-2 Redskins will try to make it two straight wins against the Packers and Colts – no easy feat. Indy comes off a rough win against KC, and will be tested here – as they have a good pass defense. The model likes a Redskins win: Redskins 21 Colts 20.

7) Dallas at Minnesota (Line : MIN – 1.5, O/U : 44.5) When I first saw this game on the schedule, I thought two good teams will fight it out, with Dallas looking for revenge against the Vikings for running up the score. Now it’s a different story of survivor – the loser goes to 1-4, and is most likely a playoff long shot. The pick is Minny: Vikings 27 Cowboys 21.

6) N.Y. Jets at Denver (Line : NYJ – 3, O/U : 41.5) The streaking Jets fly into Mile High to take on a Denver team that is very good at home. The key matchup here will be the high octane Denver pass offense against Darrelle Revis and the strong Jet pass defense.The pick is the Jets by a TD :  Jets 30 Broncos 23.

5) Cleveland at Pittsburgh (Line : PIT – 13.5, O/U : 37.5) The Browns will go with rookie Colt McCoy at QB against the aggressive Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers will also have a new QB – old yet new – Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are heavily favored here, by 13.5 – which the model thinks is a bit much:  Steelers 24 Browns 15.

Can I pick up a hand already?

4) Oakland at San Francisco (Line : SFO – 6.5, O/U : 41.5) The Raiders come off their nice win against the Chargers to travel across the bay to face the winless 49ers. Oakland will continue to trust Jason Campbell, while the Niners will give Alex Smith one more week to prove he can turn things around. The prediction is San Francisco gets their first win, but by the slimmest of margins:  49ers 25 Raiders 24.

3) New Orleans at Tampa Bay (Line : NOR – 4, O/U : 43.5) :The Saints come into this contest at 3-2, actually half a game behind the Bucs. Tampa will try to continue to surprise, and a win here would solidify their position as the runner-up to the Falcons in the NFC South. The model likes a Buc surprise  Buccaneers 25 Saints 22.

2) Detroit at N.Y. Giants (Line : NYG – 10, O/U : 44.5) The Giants have won impressively the last 2 weeks – a 24 point win against Houston, and a 14 point win against Chicago. The Lions scored only their first win last week – but it was very impressive, a 38 point romp. The Lions have been in every game except one, and the pick here is that trend continues: Giants 24 Lions 22.

1) Kansas City at Houston (Line : HOU – 4.5, O/U : 44) The  Chiefs may have lost for the first time last week, but they still impressed Indy with their strong D. Houston has been in a tailspin, losing to Dallas and the Giants at home in 2 of the last 3 weeks. The model likes them to make it 3 straight home losses: Chiefs 24 Texans 20.

Thoughts on Week 6? Let me know.