Oct. 2 – Week 4 Picks

Sorry I was unable to post Wednesday but it was a rough work day. Here are the Week 4 picks:

14) Detroit at Green Bay (Line : GBP – 14.5, O/U : 45.5) The Lions didn’t look the same without Stafford and a healthy Jahvid Best. Green Bay looks to rebound after losing a game that the numbers indicated they should have won. .The prediction is the Pack by 13, just short of the line : Packers 29 Lions 16.

13) New England at Miami (Line : NEP – 1, O/U : 46) After holding their first two opponents to 10 points each, the Dolphins gave up a bunch to the Jets. A second straight loss to a division foe would hurt. The Pats will look to shore up their D after giving up 30 to Buffalo in a win. The line is close, and so is the prediction: Patriots 25 Dolphins 23.

12) Carolina at New Orleans (Line : NOR – 13.5, O/U : 44.5) The Saints picked up a new kicker this week, and will look to avoid a second straight division loss at home. Carolina is just looking for any positive signs in any facet of the game. The model likes a big Saints win, but is short of a cover: Saints 28 Panthers 17.

11) Denver at Tennessee (Line : TEN – 6.5, O/U : 42) The Titans come off a nice win on the road against the Giants, but will continue to look for improvement in their passing game, as CJ did most of the work last week. On the flip side, the Broncos will look for more from the running game – they’ve been gaining most of their yards through the air. The pick is a Titans win and cover: Titans 25 Broncos 16.

Peyton Hillis - courtesy zimbio.com

10) Cincinnati at Cleveland (Line : CIN – 3, O/U : 37.5) Cleveland will continue to rely on Seneca Wallace and Peyton Hillis in search of their first win. Cincy will look to win the battle of the orange with an improved performance from Carson Palmer. Take the Bengals here: Bengals 21 Browns 15.

9)  Seattle at St. Louis (Line : SEA – 1, O/U : 38.5) The Seahawks come off a nice win at home against the Chargers to face the 1-2 Rams, but look closer – The Hawks only scored 13 on offense last week, are not a good road team, and the Rams have played good D. The pick here is St. Louis: Rams 23 Seahawks 20.

8 ) Arizona at San Diego (Line : SDC – 8, O/U : 46) This looks like a classic let-down game for Arizona – they escaped a narrow in against the Raiders, and now travel to San Diego, where the Chargers are looking to rebound off a tough loss at home, where they usually play well. Chargers big : Chargers 31 Cardinals 17.

7) Houston at Oakland (Line : HOU – 3, O/U : 43.5) Two teams who suffered disappointing losses last week square off in this matchup. The Texans look to revive their passing game, while the Raiders will attempt to win their second home game behind Darren McFadden. The model likes Oakland: Raiders 25 Texans 22.

6) Washington at Philadelphia (Line : PHI – 6, O/U : 43) What kind of ovation will Donavan get at the Link in McNabb Bowl I? More importantly, the Eagles look to keep their lead in the NFC East against a division rival. The Redskins try to rebound off of a tough loss in St. Louis. The pick here is Philly: Eagles 30 Redskins 15.

5) Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Line : PIT – 1, O/U : 34) Many analysts like Baltimore here, but I don’t get it – the Ravens have shown they are vulnerable to the pass, and the Steelers have hit the big pass to Mike Wallace several times despite the iffy QB situation. Two tough defenses, but the math favors Pittsburgh : Steelers 23 Ravens 12.

4) San Francisco at Atlanta (Line : ATL – 7, O/U : 42) This is an interesting matchup – a desperate 49er club visits Atlanta, who has looked like gangbusters the past couple of weeks – including a big win in New Orleans. A reversal of fortune? Perhaps, but the model doesn’t think so: Falcons 33 49ers 14.

 3) N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (Line : NYJ – 5.5, O/U : 37) The Bills were able to surprise the Jets once in this matchup last year – the question is can they do it again? Buffalo looked like a new team in their loss to New England under Ryan Fitzpatrick’s leadership, but the pick here is the Jets defense will stifle them: Jets 32 Bills 14.

2) Indianapolis at Jacksonville (Line : IND – 7.5, O/U : 46) This line looked low when I first saw it, and it still does – The Colts have regained their swagger after their Week 1 loss to Houston, and Jacksonville has not done anything right since their Week 1 win. Expect the trends to continue: Colts 33 Jaguars 11.

1) Chicago at N.Y. Giants (Line : NYG – 4, O/U : 44) The Giants will try to avoid losing a second straight at home to a streaking Chicago team. New York will have to defend the pass well, as Mike Martz has the Bears in many empty backfield, 5 WR sets. Eli Manning played well in between the 20’s last week, but just couldn’t punch the ball in. The model likes the Bears in an upset : Bears 27 Giants 14.

Good luck with your picks tomorrow!