Home > NFL > Sept. 27 – Week 3 Results – Upsets Galore

Sept. 27 – Week 3 Results – Upsets Galore

Another NFL Sunday, and another improved week on the picks. Overall the model went 10-5 on this week’s games, it went 2-2 on the top 4, and won the best bet. For the season I’m now just over .500 overall (23-21), at 56% for the top 4, and have won 2 out of 3 best bets. It was another rough over/under week, at 5-10. Here are quick reviews of the Week 3 games:

15) Cincinnati at Carolina (Line : CIN – 3, O/U : 38.5) The Panthers have looked pretty awful the first 2 weeks, and now Jimmy Claussen will get his shot to bring their offense back to life. The Bengals scored a nice win last week, but they need to be able to punch the ball in, and not settle for FGs. The prediction is a Bengals cover: Bengals 23 Panthers 19. Actual Score: Bengals 20 Panthers 7 Welcome to the NFL Jimmy. It looks like the Panthers may be one of, if not the worst team in football this year. The running game is probably their only saving grace. Cincy wasn’t very impressive either – Carson Palmer did not look sharp – but they will take the win on the road. A win on the line, and a loss on the over/under.

14) Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (Line : PIT – 2.5, O/U : 33) Most of what you need to know about this game can be derived from the over/under line. The Steelers have allowed a total of 20 points in their first 2 games. The Bucs have allowed 28. The model likes a defensive struggle, with the Steelers not covering the 2.5. : Steelers 17 Buccaneers 16. Actual Score: Steelers 38 Buccaneers 13 It didn’t take the Bucs long to realize this was not the Panthers or Browns they were playing. Both Mike Wallace and Mendenhall had huge days, and the Steelers are one Ravens game away from going 4-0 without their QB. A loss for the model here, but a slim over/under win.

 13) Washington at St. Louis (Line : WAS – 3.5, O/U : 38) The Redskins will go on the road this year for the first time, after a heartbreaking loss last week to Houston. The offense will need to continue the air assault – St. Louis’ stingy D has allowed 16 and 17 points in their first 2. The pick here is the Skins don’t cover: Redskins 17 Rams 16. Actual Score: Rams 30 Redskins 16 It only took until Week 3 this year for the Rams to post their first win, and this one was well deserved. The offense played well, despite an injury to Steven Jackson, and the Spags D still has not allowed 20 points in a game yet. This loss hurts the Skins, who had a chance to share the lead in a muddled NFC East. A win on the prediction, and an over/under loss.

12) Indianapolis at Denver (Line : IND – 5.5, O/U : 48) One has to wonder which Colt team will show up in Denver – the road team that couldn’t muster much in Houston, or the home team that walloped the Giants? Denver will look to Moreno to take advantage of the Colts run defense. Go with a close game here: Colts 26 Broncos 23. Actual Score: Colts 27 Broncos 13 The Colts have recovered nicely from the Week 1 loss to Houston with 2 big wins. This one was the Peyton-Collie show, Manning staying away from Champ Bailey and Reggie Wayne and using Austin Collie, who racked up 171 receiving yards. The loss of Moreno hurt Denver, who couldn’t run the ball at all. A loss on both ends in this one.

11) Philadelphia at Jacksonville (Line : PHI – 3.5, O/U : 44) Well, the QB controversy came to an end, and Michael Vick will be leading the Eagles in northern Florida. He will have to throw the ball against a suspect Jaguar secondary. Garrard cannot throw 4 picks against a swarming Philly defense like he did last week if Jacksonville is to have any chance here. The pick is the Eagles to cover: Eagles 33 Jaguars 25. Actual Score: Eagles 28 Jaguars 3 Philadelphia took care of business against a Jaguar team that is looking worse week after week. Michael Vick made Andy Reid look good by throwing 3 TDs, and finding DeSean Jackson all day long. MJD rushed for 88, but Garrard only managed 105 yards in a game that was never in doubt. A win on the line, and an over/under loss.

10) Oakland at Arizona (Line : ARZ – 4, O/U : 39.5) Bruce Gradkowski came to the Raiders rescue last week, taking over for Jason Campbell and securing a win against the Rams. Will he be needed again this week? Derek Anderson hasn’t proven anything for the struggling Cards. Look for the Oakland running game to carry the load here, in a mild upset: Raiders 24 Cardinals 23. Actual Score: Cardinals 24 Raiders 23 What’s the old line from Willy Wonka? – “Strike that – reverse it.” Reverse the teams here and it’s a pretty good prediction. A made chip-shot FG by Janikowski at the end of the game and the Raiders take this one, but it was still a nice showing by Oakland – Darren McFadden has shown he’s an every down back. Arizona escapes with a win and a somewhat deceiving 2-1 record. A win on both ends, with an over/under bingo.

Adrian Peterson - courtesy vikingsgab.com

9) Detroit at Minnesota (Line : MIN – 11, O/U : 42)The line here is surprising – the Vikes are favored by 11, yet they have scored 19 points the whole season. The Lions have played each of their first 2 games close – heck, they probably should have won one of them. The model agrees here, and likes a Minnesota win, but not a cover: Vikings 23 Lions 18. Actual Score: Vikings 24 Lions 10 This game came down to the fact that the Vikings were able to stop Jahvid Best, but the Lions could not stop Adrian Peterson. The QB play cancelled each other out because they were both pretty bad. Shaun Hill threw two goal line INTs, while Brett Favre just cannot seem to find a groove with his receivers minus Sidney Rice. A loss here, but an over/under win.

8 ) N.Y. Jets at Miami (Line : MIA – 2, O/U : 34.5) Another game here with a very low over/under. The Jets proved they can open up their offense last week. Miami, on the other hand, scored just one TD on offense last week. It should be a good defensive struggle Sunday night, and the prediction is a Jets win on the road: Jets 18 Dolphins 14 Actual Score: Jets 31 Dolphins 23 In what surprisingly turned into a shootout, the Jets proved that they can score in bunches when they need to. Dustin Keller had another big game, and the Jets now have beaten both division rivals in consecutive weeks, which may end up being big in the long run. The Miami D that gave up 2 TDs all season gave up 4 in this one. A win on the prediction, but an over/under loss.

7) San Francisco at Kansas City (Line : SFO – 2.5, O/U : 36.5) The 49ers came on with a late charge last week, and look like they are finally getting into gear. However, they entire hostile territory this week – into Arrowhead where a confident Chiefs team will look to score the upset. KC will have to build on the one TD they’ve scored on offense so far this season. The model likes the home team: Chiefs 19 49ers 14. Actual Score: Chiefs 31 49ers 10 If the first 2 KC wins were products of defense and special teams, this win was a very nice offensive effort. Matt Cassel threw 3 TD passes, and Jamaal Charles ran for 97. On the flip side, Mike Singletary has to be wondering where the “team on the cusp” from last year is. Teams starting 0-3 make the post-season 3% of the time. An upset win for the model, and an over/under loss.

6) Tennessee at N.Y. Giants (Line : NYG – 3, O/U : 42.5) Both teams in this matchup are looking to rebound after tough losses last week. The Titans were stymied by the Pittsburgh defense – but CJ should find it easier in New Jersey. The Giants will need Eli to be on his game against a weak secondary. The prediction here is a Titans upset: Titans 28 Giants 24. Actual Score: Titans 29 Giants 10 Now this was a game that was truly an enigma, although it does stress the importance of turnovers. The Giants did not punt the entire game. The Giants gained almost 500 yards total. Yet the Giants totaled 10 points. Penalties also hurt, and the Titans took advantage. Another upset win here, and another over/under loss.

5) Atlanta at New Orleans (Line : NOR – 4, O/U : 50) This should be a very interesting matchup of division opponents. Both the Saints offense and defense have not yet played up to the level of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Falcons seem to be charging ahead full steam, rushing for over 200 yards last week. The pick here is the Saints get their first loss: Falcons 21 Saints 17 Actual Score: Falcons 27 Saints 24 Garrett Hartley now knows the ups and downs in the life of a FG kicker – last year he booted the big kick that sent the Saints to the big game – now he may be cut after missing a chippy to win this one. More importantly, the Saints looked like the offense returned to last year’s form, with Brees hitting a couple of big bombs to Lance Moore. However, the defense struggled to stop Atlanta’s rushing game, and Matt Ryan found Tony Gonzalez 8 times. A third straight upset win, and yet another over/under loss.

4) Buffalo at New England (Line : NEP – 14, O/U : 42.5): The Patriots were handed a big blow this week with the loss of Kevin Faulk for the year. Still, they should not have a hard time with an awful Bills squad. Buffalo gives the reins over to Ryan Fitzpatrick in an attempt to cure their offensive ills. The model likes the Pats, but not by 14: Patriots 22 Bills 16 Actual Score: Patriots 38 Bills 30 I think it’s safe to say Ryan Fitzpatrick has the QB job for Buffalo, as they scored almost double the points they managed in Weeks 1 and 2 combined. C.J. Spiller had a good game both rushing and returning. However, it seemed whenever the Bills would strike the Pats knew just how to answer. Bill Belichick is probably stewing about the defense, but the Pats will take this one. A win on the line, and an over/under loss.

3) Dallas at Houston (Line : HOU – 3, O/U : 47.5) America’s Team will have their hands full trying to avoid an 0-3 start. Their offense will need to produce against a Houston team that can pour on the points. Matt Schaub just missed the 500 yard mark last week, and will look to move the Texans to 3-0. The prediction here is Houston – big: Texans 27 Cowboys 15. Actual Score: Cowboys 27 Texans 13 It was a do-or-die game for Dallas very early in the season, and the Cowboys showed up this time around. Tony Romo was accurate, hitting 23 of 30, and 2 of those went to the reborn Roy Williams for TDs. Arian Foster had another good game, but the Texans could not punch the ball in at key parts of the game. A loss on the line, and an over/under win.

2) San Diego at Seattle (Line : SDC – 5.5, O/U : 44)The Chargers woke up in a big way against the Jags last week, scoring 38 and forcing 6 turnovers on their way to a lopsided win. Seattle is an excellent  home team, and already surprised the Niners with a good showing there. The model likes the Chargers to continue their winning ways with a convincing win : Chargers 31 Seahawks 15 Actual Score: Seahawks 27 Chargers 20 Is it too early to give up on ever getting any Seahawk games right? The Seattle team which is the bane of all logic won in this matchup on the back – and the legs – of Leon Washington, who ran back two kicks for TDs. San Diego racked up almost twice as many yards on offense as Seattle, but ultimately 5 turnovers sealed their fate, and a 1-2 start. A loss on the pick, and an over/under win.

1) Cleveland at Baltimore (Line : BAL – 10.5, O/U : 37.5) This is a second game with a very interesting line – the Ravens have scored a total of 20 points the whole season, yet they are favored by over 10. The Browns will look to avoid an 0-3 start, and will try to victimize Joe Flacco, who threw 4 INTs last week. The model likes a big upset here- I’m not sure about that, but I think a no-cover is reasonable. Then again, last week I said the same thing on the Best Bet, and look what happened: Browns 21 Ravens 12 Actual Score: Ravens 24 Browns 17 The Ravens did a nice job coming back against an inspired Browns team starting both a backup QB and a backup RB. At one point, Cleveland was up 17-14, but Joe Flacco seemed to be able to find Anquan Boldin all day – he scored all 3 Baltimore touchdowns – and the Ravens pulled away.  A best bet win for the model, and a loss on the over/under.

Comments or thoughts on the picks? Let me know.

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