Home > NFL > Sept. 22 – Week 3 Picks, Trivia Answer

Sept. 22 – Week 3 Picks, Trivia Answer

I will not be able to write tomorrow due to the Jewish holiday, so the following are all the Week 3 picks from least to greatest confidence:

16) Green Bay at Chicago (Line : GBP – 3, O/U : 46) The prediction has the Packers winning by 2.8, only .2 off of the line. Two 2-0 teams square off in a big divisional battle. The Bears will try to show that the hot start is not a fluke, while a Green Bay win would put them in prime position in the division. The pick is the Packers don’t cover the 3: Packers 28 Bears 26.

15) Cincinnati at Carolina (Line : CIN – 3, O/U : 38.5) The Panthers have looked pretty awful the first 2 weeks, and now Jimmy Clausen will get his shot to bring their offense back to life. The Bengals scored a nice win last week, but they need to be able to punch the ball in, and not settle for FGs. The prediction is a Bengals cover: Bengals 23 Panthers 19.

14) Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (Line : PIT – 2.5, O/U : 33) Most of what you need to know about this game can be derived from the over/under line. The Steelers have allowed a total of 20 points in their first 2 games. The Bucs have allowed 28. The model likes a defensive struggle, with the Steelers not covering the 2.5. : Steelers 17 Buccaneers 16.

13) Washington at St. Louis (Line : WAS – 3.5, O/U : 38) The Redskins will go on the road this year for the first time, after a heartbreaking loss last week to Houston. The offense will need to continue the air assault – St. Louis’ stingy D has allowed 16 and 17 points in their first 2. The pick here is the Skins don’t cover: Redskins 17 Rams 16.

Knowshown Moreno - courtesy nflsoup.com

12) Indianapolis at Denver (Line : IND – 5.5, O/U : 48) One has to wonder which Colt team will show up in Denver – the road team that couldn’t muster much in Houston, or the home team that walloped the Giants? Denver will look to Moreno to take advantage of the Colts run defense. Go with a close game here: Colts 26 Broncos 23.

11) Philadelphia at Jacksonville (Line : PHI – 3.5, O/U : 44) Well, the QB controversy came to an end, and Michael Vick will be leading the Eagles in northern Florida. He will have to throw the ball against a suspect Jaguar secondary. Garrard cannot throw 4 picks against a swarming Philly defense like he did last week if Jacksonville is to have any chance here. The pick is the Eagles to cover: Eagles 33 Jaguars 25.

10) Oakland at Arizona (Line : ARZ – 4, O/U : 39.5) Bruce Gradkowski came to the Raiders rescue last week, taking over for Jason Campbell and securing a win against the Rams. Will he be needed again this week? Derek Anderson hasn’t proven anything for the struggling Cards. Look for the Oakland running game to carry the load here, in a mild upset: Raiders 24 Cardinals 23.

9) Detroit at Minnesota (Line : MIN – 11, O/U : 42)The line here is surprising – the Vikes are favored by 11, yet they have scored 19 points the whole season. The Lions have played each of their first 2 games close – heck, they probably should have won one of them. The model agrees here, and likes a Minnesota win, but not a cover: Vikings 23 Lions 18.

8 ) N.Y. Jets at Miami (Line : MIA – 2, O/U : 34.5) Another game here with a very low over/under. The Jets proved they can open up their offense last week. Miami, on the other hand, scored just one TD on offense last week. It should be a good defensive struggle Sunday night, and the prediction is a Jets win on the road: Jets 18 Dolphins 14.

7) San Francisco at Kansas City (Line : SFO – 2.5, O/U : 36.5) The 49ers came on with a late charge last week, and look like they are finally getting into gear. However, they entire hostile territory this week – into Arrowhead where a confident Chiefs team will look to score the upset. KC will have to build on the one TD they’ve scored on offense so far this season. The model likes the home team: Chiefs 19 49ers 14.

6) Tennessee at N.Y. Giants (Line : NYG – 3, O/U : 42.5) Both teams in this matchup are looking to rebound after tough losses last week. The Titans were stymied by the Pittsburgh defense – but CJ should find it easier in New Jersey. The Giants will need Eli to be on his game against a weak secondary. The prediction here is a Titans upset: Titans 28 Giants 24.

5) Atlanta at New Orleans (Line : NOR – 4, O/U : 50) This should be a very interesting matchup of division opponents. Both the Saints offense and defense have not yet played up to the level of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Falcons seem to be charging ahead full steam, rushing for over 200 yards last week. The pick here is the Saints get their first loss: Falcons 21 Saints 17.

4) Buffalo at New England (Line : NEP – 14, O/U : 42.5): The Patriots were handed a big blow this week with the loss of Kevin Faulk for the year. Still, they should not have a hard time with an awful Bills squad. Buffalo gives the reins over to Ryan Fitzpatrick in an attempt to cure their offensive ills. The model likes the Pats, but not by 14: Patriots 22 Bills 16.

3) Dallas at Houston (Line : HOU – 3, O/U : 47.5) America’s Team will have their hands full trying to avoid an 0-3 start. Their offense will need to produce against a Houston team that can pour on the points. Matt Schaub just missed the 500 yard mark last week, and will look to move the Texans to 3-0. The prediction here is Houston – big: Texans 27 Cowboys 15.

2) San Diego at Seattle (Line : SDC – 5.5, O/U : 44)The Chargers woke up in a big way against the Jags last week, scoring 38 and forcing 6 turnovers on their way to a lopsided win. Seattle is an excellent  home team, and already surprised the Niners with a good showing there. The model likes the Chargers to continue their winning ways with a convincing win : Chargers 31 Seahawks 15.

1) Cleveland at Baltimore (Line : BAL – 10.5, O/U : 37.5) This is a second game with a very interesting line – the Ravens have scored a total of 20 points the whole season, yet they are favored by over 10. The Browns will look to avoid an 0-3 start, and will try to victimize Joe Flacco, who threw 4 INTs last week. The model likes a big upset here- I’m not sure about that, but I think a no-cover is reasonable. Then again, last week I said the same thing on the Best Bet, and look what happened: Browns 21 Ravens 12.

Trivia Answer : The New England Patriots have been the best home team over the last 3 years. In two of those seasons, they went undefeated at home during the regular season. Coming in second are the Colts, Steelers, and Vikings.

Until next week…..

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Categories: NFL
  1. Ray
    September 25, 2010 at 1:24 AM

    Thanks for the blog, have been following it for a couple weeks now.

    There are some interesting games this weekend. First, three teams (Dallas, Minnesota and San Francisco) trying to stave off a 0-3 start and a bunch of home dogs (Chicago, Tampa Bay, Denver) that won last week facing teams, also coming off wins.

    Anyways, my picks:
    1. Packers to cover but not a shootout, 24-20.
    2. The Steelers-Bucs game is a tough one to pick, Steelers down to Charlie Batch as their QB and the Bucs QB verus a Dick LeBeau defense, agree with your pick here.
    3. Oakland @ Arizona: Two semi-functional offenses but it’s the home opener for the Cards. I see Arizona winning 20-17.
    4. 49ers @ Chiefs: The 49ers desperately looking for their first win in one of the tougher venues to play in. But, I expect the 49ers stout run defense to hold the Chiefs offense in check and the 49ers offense to overcome crowd noise enough to win 19-17.

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