Home > NFL > Sept. 20 – Week 2 Review – Rebound

Sept. 20 – Week 2 Review – Rebound

Week 2 was an improved week for the model. Overall, it went 8-6-1, and 3-0-1 on the top 4 confidence picks. The predictions also were true on several upsets – Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. For the season, I’m 13-15-3, Top four 3-2-3, and 1-1 on best bets. It’s still a coin flip on over/unders, where I’m 14-17. Here are quick reviews of Sunday’s games:

 16) Buffalo at Green Bay (Line : GBP – 13, O/U : 43) The model likes the Pack by 13.32, so there is very little wiggle room here. Aaron Rodgers should have a better Sunday against the Bills than he did in Week 1. The Bills will try and muster more than 10 points: Packers 29 Bills 15. Actual Score: Packers 34 Bills 7 The Bills can hire all the offensive gurus they want, but I don’t know if they’ll do much with Edwards at QB. They had 62 passing yards Sunday. Aaron Rodgers rebounded nicely from a rough Week 1. A win here, but an over/under loss.

15) Philadelphia at Detroit (Line : PHI – 5, O/U : 41.5) The prediction here is the Iggles by 5.4, so this is another close one. Both teams come in with backup QBs starting. Megatron will be wearing sticky gloves this week, but will it matter? : Eagles 27 Lions 21. Actual Score: Eagles 35 Lions 32 A second straight game where the Lions were just not good enough, but this team will fight. Down 35-17, they almost came from behind to win. Michael Vick was very good – Philly officially has a QB controversy. The Detroit comeback prevented an Eagle cover, so a loss on the line here, but an over/under win.

14) Kansas City at Cleveland (Line : CLE – 1.5, O/U : 39)The Browns will try to avoid the second half meltdown that occurred in Florida last week. Delhomme might not play, but is that a bad thing? KC looks for a 2-0 start that would surprise many. The model has the Brownies by 1.92 – another close call: Browns 19 Chiefs 17. Actual Score: Chiefs 16 Browns 14  The Chiefs score a second straight win where defense or special teams scored a TD. They are doing it with the running game as well, but sooner or later Matt Cassel will have to step up. Losses  to Tampa and KC in the first 2 weeks don’t bode well for Eric Mangini. A loss on the line, but a win on the low score.

13) Arizona at Atlanta (Line : ATL – 6.5, O/U : 43) Atlanta opens its home schedule in what they are hoping will be high-scoring fashion. The Arizona defense held the Rams to 13 last week, but this Falcon team is a different beast. The prediction is Atlanta by 7.12, still less than 1 off of the line : Falcons 23 Cardinals 16. Actual Score: Falcons 41 Cardinals 7  A narrow win over St. Louis, and now a blow-out loss to Atlanta shows it’s not just the offense that ails this team. The Falcons were running on all cylinders, and are full of confidence heading into their showdown in the Bayou. A win on the line here, but an over/under loss.

12) New England at N.Y. Jets (Line : NEP – 2, O/U : 38) The Jets would be in a bad way if they started 0-2, with both losses at home. The Pats would be in a good way if they can secure this division road game on their way to a 2-0 start. Another close one to the line here – the math has the Pats winning by 1.37 – so the pick is they don’t cover: Patriots 21 Jets 20. Actual Score: Jets 28 Patriots 14  The Jets gave Mark Sanchez some more freedom, and the result was positive. The Pats were stymied by a Jets D that didn’t have Revis for half the game – although the TD catch by Randy Moss brought back memories of the old Viking days (and I need those right now). A notch in the win column on both ends.

11) Tampa Bay at Carolina (Line : CAR – 3.5, O/U : 39) The Panthers will try to rebound from a sloppy Week 1. The Bucs will look to build on their comeback win over Cleveland. Moore looks like he will start for the Cats. The model likes Carolina to cover by a small margin: Panthers 24 Buccaneers 19. Actual Score: Buccaneers 20 Panthers 7 Raise your hand if you had the Bucs at 2-0. Josh Freeman looked good in a nice win on the road. Next week will be a true test against the vaunted Steelers defense. There’s not much to say about Carolina – Matt Moore looks awful, and right now my daughter’s soccer team (also the Panthers) has a much better outlook. A loss on both ends in this one.

Joe Flacco - courtesy Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

10) Baltimore at Cincinnati (Line : BAL – 2, O/U : 40)The Ravens are favored on the road here after a very good defensive showing against the Jets. But be careful here – this Cincy team wont run the ball over and over  – Carson will air it out to Ocho Cinco and Ocho Uno. The pick here is a narrow Bengal win: Bengals 19 Ravens 18. Actual Score: Bengals 15 Ravens 10 The Bengals defense returned to form, forcing four Joe Flacco INTs. Baltimore has now scored 10 in two straight weeks, and is probably fortunate to have one win. They haven’t played at home yet, however. Wins on the line and the over/under for the model here.

9) Miami at Minnesota (Line : MIN – 5.5, O/U : 39.5) The Vikings will have to prove they can score against the Dolphins’ stingy defense. On the other side, the Miami offense will probably have to do better than the TD and 2 FGs they scored against the Bills if they want to beat Minnesota. The model likes a Viking win, but not a Viking cover: Vikings 20 Dolphins 18. Actual Score: Dolphins 14 Vikings 10  Minnesota has allowed 28 points in 2 games, yet are 0-2. The fault clearly lies with the offense, and 4 Favre turnovers don’t help. Miami’s offense has scored 29 points in 2 games and is 2-0, with both games on the road. They may not need to score much next week, their home opener against the Jets. Wins on both ends in this game.

8 ) Jacksonville at San Diego (Line : SDC – 7.5, O/U : 45.5) San Diego looks to come back strong after a dreadful loss in KC. It’s a good matchup for Rivers, as Jacksonville’s secondary isn’t great – but his receivers will need to catch the ball this week. The prediction is a Charger win, but not a cover: Chargers 23 Jaguars 18. Actual Score: Chargers 38 Jaguars 13 David Garrard was awful in this one, and once the Jags got behind early, MJD became a non-factor. San Diego looked like a different team than last week, taking advantage of a weak Jacksonville secondary. A loss on both ends for the model here.

7) Seattle at Denver (Line : DEN – 3.5, O/U : 40) Will the Seahawks be exposed this week, or will they go to 2-0 under Pete Carroll? It will be interesting to see if last year’s inconsistency carries over. The Broncos are traditionally a very good home team, but the model likes a close one here: Seahawks 22 Broncos 23. Actual Score: Broncos 31 Seahawks 14 The Jekyll and Hyde act continues for the Seahawks, as they were never really close in this one. Kyle Orton has a second straight nice game, and Moreno broke a couple of big runs as well. A loss on the line, but a win on the over/under.

5) N.Y. Giants at Indianapolis (Line : IND – 5.5, O/U : 48) It’s Manning Bowl II on NBC – In Manning Bowl I 4 years ago, Peyton beat out brother Eli in New Jersey. You have to figure the Colts will manage a way to avoid 0-2, even if it means big brother has to throw for 400 yards for the second straight week. However, the prediction here is an upset: Giants 29 Colts 28. Actual Score: Colts 38 Giants 14 Peyton 2, Eli 0. In actuality though, this game was more about the Colts running game. The Giants decided to try 6 DBs on most downs, and Joseph Addai and Donald Brown took advantage. Even so, Peyton still managed to throw 3 TDs, in a game that was never close. A loss against the betting line, but a win on the over/under.

4) Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Line : TEN – 5, O/U : 36.5) Dennis Dixon will get his 2nd start against a titans team that looked very good last week. However, the Steelers are not the Raiders, and this will be a much tougher assignment. The model likes a higher scoring affair here, despite 2 good defenses. Another upset: Steelers 26 Titans 24. Actual Score: Steelers 19 Titans 11 How impressive is the Steelers D? They hold the Falcons to 9. The next week, Atlanta scores 41. The Titans score 38 in Week 1. Then Pittsburgh holds them to 11. The Steelers have loads of offensive woes, and are on their 4th string QB, yet they are 2-0. Vince Young was awful, and Kerry Collins threw the only Tennessee TD. A good prediction in this one with the upset, but by fewer points than the model predicted.

3) Houston at Washington (Line : HOU – 3, O/U : 43.5) It will be a family reunion in DC, where the Shanahans and Gary Kubiak face off. Washington is still looking for its offense, while the Texans will try to ride Arian Foster another week. The prediction here is that Matt Schaub returns to form: Texans 23 Redskins 12. Actual Score: Texans 30 Redskins 27 This was probably the most exciting game of the week, and not for the defensive minded. Both QBs threw for over 400 yards, and Schaub almost hit the 500 mark. It was a good comeback for Houston, which now comes home to host a desperate Cowboy team. A push on the 3 point line here, and a loss on the over/under.

2) St. Louis at Oakland (Line : OAK – 3.5, O/U : 37.5) Both teams in this matchup managed 13 points in Week 1. Sam Bradford will try to improve on that showing, while the Raiders hope getting Michael Bush back will help their cause. The model likes another upset here: Rams 23 Raiders 18. Actual Score: Raiders 16 Rams 14 In a game that was about as ugly as you can get, Oakland won out a close one. Bruce Gradkowski came in after Jason Campbell struggled, and led the Raiders to the win. Sam Bradford is still learning on the job – he has to learn when to throw the ball away. A win on the line, but an over/under loss.

1) Chicago at Dallas (Line : DAL – 7.5, O/U : 41)The model looks at the Cowboys last couple of weeks, and sees a team that managed a total of 10 points and gained little yardage. Then it looks at a Bears team that had close to 400 yards in the air alone last week in a game they lost, yet won. Odds are the Boys rebound this week, but the math says they don’t. Personally I’d go with a no-cover, until they prove they can score: Bears 19 Cowboys 18. Actual Score: Bears 27 Cowboys 20 The Bears had a big passing day, and Jay Cutler can do very good things if he can keep away from throwing the ball to the other team. Dallas struggled on offense again, managing 13 points – the other 7 were on a Dez Bryant punt return. A nice win for the model in this one, and an over/under loss.

Any thoughts on the games or the predictions? Let me know.

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