Home > NFL > Sept. 14 – Monday Night, What’s it Worth? Redux

Sept. 14 – Monday Night, What’s it Worth? Redux

I’ll start today with a quick review of last night’s games:

10) Baltimore at N.Y. Jets (Line : NYJ – 2.5, O/U : 36) New York opens their campaign with a home game in their new digs against a very talented Baltimore team. The Monday night contest should be an early gauge as to what direction these two playoff teams from last year are headed. The model likes a very close game, with a slight edge to the visitors:  Ravens 21 Jets 20. Actual Score: Ravens 10 Jets 9.  A second game this week where the model was right on target. The Jets will have to prove they can throw the ball deep, or they won’t get very far this year. This was a good, tough, road win for a solid Baltimore team – but look for their secondary to get exposed next week against pass-happy Cincinnati. The model lost the over/under.

Dexter McCluster (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

7)San Diego at Kansas City (Line : SDC – 5.5, O/U : 45) For the second straight year, the Chargers open Monday night, on the road at a division rival. Last year they won a close one in the Black Hole. This year the model likes a more convincing win in Arrowhead:  Chargers 27 Chiefs 18. Actual Score: Chiefs 21 Chargers 14.  Another Week 1 stunner here – this was more about what San Diego didn’t do than it was about what the Chiefs did. The Chiefs scored 3 times, one nice bust-out run by Jamaal Charles, one pass where they got the ball deep in SD territory after a turnover, and a punt return by McCluster. Hardly an offensive outburst. This was more about Mathews not looking like LT, and the receivers dropping balls left and right. A loss on both ends for the model.

So the final Week 1 record is 5-9-2, and 7-9 on over/unders.

A couple of weeks ago I asked what a turnover was worth in points. Since I have a busy work day today, I’ll open up a discussion with this question: How many points do you think home-field advantage in football is worth? Obviously it can vary from team to team, but on average, how would you start to come up with such a figure? Here are 2 facts that might help: 1) The average over/under line for NFL games is 40-41. 2) In the NFL, the home team wins approximately 57% of the time.

Thoughts? Post them in the comments section.

I’ll start Week 2 previews tomorrow.

Categories: NFL
  1. Scott Teich
    September 14, 2010 at 7:59 PM

    Wow,another impressive and insightful article 🙂

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