Home > MLB, NFL > Sept. 7 – True or False?, Week 1 Picks (Part 2)

Sept. 7 – True or False?, Week 1 Picks (Part 2)

Let’s start today with a math problem:

True or False?

Derek Jeter - Courtesy Wikipedia. Is Jeter Player A or Player B in this question?

A)     In 1995, Player A hit .250. In 1996, Player A hit .314. In 1997, Player A hit .291.

B)      In 1995, Player B hit .253. In 1996, Player B hit .321. In 1997, Player B hit .329.

C)      Since Player B hit for a better average than Player A in all 3 individual seasons, Player B’s overall average over the 3 seasons MUST be better than Player A’s.

Is Statement C true or false? Let me know what your answer is and why in the comments section. I will reveal the answer, and the math behind it in an upcoming post.

Here are the model’s predictions for games 10 through 6:

10) Baltimore at N.Y. Jets (Line : NYJ – 2.5, O/U : 36) New York opens their campaign with a home game in their new digs against a very talented Baltimore team. The Monday night contest should be an early gauge as to what direction these two playoff teams from last year are headed. The model likes a very close game, with a slight edge to the visitors:  Ravens 21 Jets 20.

9) Detroit at Chicago (Line : CHI – 6, O/U : 43)Two NFC North teams that struggled in 2009 face off in the 2010 opener. Both teams have some new faces on offense. Mike Martz will try to get more points and less turnovers out of Jay Cutler. The model gives the Bears a good start:  Bears 27 Lions 18.

8 ) Indianapolis at Houston (Line : IND – 2, O/U : 47) The Colts begin the defense of their AFC crown, while the Texans begin the quest for their first playoff berth. There should be a lot of firepower in this matchup, with two top quarterbacks facing each other – but the model actually predicts a more defensive affair, and a Colts cover:  Colts 22 Texans 17.

7) San Diego at Kansas City (Line : SDC – 5.5, O/U : 45) For the second straight year, the Chargers open Monday night, on the road at a division rival. Last year they won a close one in the Black Hole. This year the model likes a more convincing win in Arrowhead:  Chargers 27 Chiefs 18.

6) Green Bay at Philadelphia (Line : GBP – 3, O/U : 47.5) The Eagles try to start the post-McNabb era off on the right foot. The Packers ended last season scoring a monstrous number of points, but also giving up plenty. The model likes that trend to continue here, in what it predicts is the biggest difference from the over/under line:  Packers 41 Eagles 31.

I’ll post the top 5 games tomorrow.

Categories: MLB, NFL
  1. Aryeh
    September 7, 2010 at 1:28 PM

    C – NOT necessarily true unless the AB/season were equivalent. If Player B had far more ABs in 1995 relative to total ABs over the three year period than Player A could easily have the higher average.

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