Home > NFL > Sept. 6 – Week 1 Picks (Part 1)

Sept. 6 – Week 1 Picks (Part 1)

Before I start with the model’s picks – just a couple of notes :

1)       Week 1 games are the hardest for the model to predict. The model cannot take into account all the changes that occur in the offseason for every team. In other words, the model doesn’t know about the Redskins overhaul, the new system put in by Pete Carroll in Seattle, or the new Meadowlands opening in New Jersey. The idea is that the model slowly adjusts for such changes, but initially, all the model has to go on are last years’ numbers.

2)       This is an experiment – trial and error. You should consider it the same.

I’ll start with the games where the model is closest to the line, and make my way to where the model differs the most from Vegas. In other words, I’ll go from least confidence to most confidence. So the last game I post will be a “best bet”, so to speak.

Here are the first 6:

16) Minnesota at New Orleans (Line : NOR – 4.5, O/U : 48) The model was .06 away from the line in predicting this game. It likes a high scoring affair, and a similar result to last year’s NFC Championship. The Saints win, but do not cover (barely) : Saints 29 Vikings 25.

15) Dallas at Washington (Line : DAL – 4, O/U : 40.5) The Boys start the quest to play in a home Super Bowl with a game in Washington. The new Redskins regime will fall just short. The model has Dallas covering the 4 , but not by much. : Cowboys 21 Redskins 16.

14) Oakland at Tennessee (Line : TEN – 6, O/U : 40.5) The Titans are hoping to start the 2010 campaign with a win (not 6 losses). Oakland is a better team than last year, and should put up some points. The Titans cover the six here, but again, it’s close:  Titans 29 Raiders 22.

13) Atlanta at Pittsburgh (Line : ATL – 2.5, O/U : 38) The Steelers play the first of 4 games without Big Ben. It’s at home, but unfortunately against a tough Falcon team. The model likes the Falcons here in a defensive affair: Falcons 20 Steelers 16.

12) Cincinnati at New England (Line : NEP – 4.5, O/U : 45) The Patriots typically struggle at the beginning of the year, and the line reflects that. This Cincy team will have to prove that the struggles at the end of 2009 were an aberration. The model likes the Pats at home:  Patriots 25 Bengals 18.

11) Miami at Buffalo (Line : MIA – 3, O/U : 38.5) The Fins start the season with a game against the division rival Bills. Buffalo looks to generate more offense with a new offensive system, while Miami hopes to gain an all important road win within the division. The model likes Miami:  Dolphins 21 Bills 16.

I’ll post games 10-6 tomorrow. Please comment with your thoughts (or picks). Happy Labor Day!

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