Home > MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL > August 30 – Homesick Results, NFL Re-Preview (Part 6 of 8)

August 30 – Homesick Results, NFL Re-Preview (Part 6 of 8)

So here are the results from the home-field advantage question:

  2007 2008 2009 Total
MLB 1318-1113 (54.2%) 1351-1077 (55.6%) 1333-1097 (54.9%) 4002-3287 (54.9%)
NFL 147-109 (57.4%) 146-109 (57.3%) 146-110 (57%) 439-328 (57.2%)
NBA 739-491 (60.1%) 748-482 (60.8%) 731-499 (59.4%) 2218-1472 (60.1%)
NHL 661-569 (53.7%) 687-543 (55.9%) 690-540 (56.1%) 2038-1652 (55.2%)

Basketball has the biggest home-court advantage. Football is next – when I made my guess I probably should have taken climate and domes into account more, as my comment-or (Thanks!) pointed out. Coming in a close 3rd/4th are hockey and baseball. I was amazed at how consistent the numbers were from season to season for some sports, particularly football. Any thoughts on these results? Let us know in the comments!

On to the NFC North:

 Chicago Bears:

Jay Cutler - courtesy Wikipedia

The Bears were another team that could not find any consistency in any part of their game in 2009. Jay Cutler would have an great game followed by a game where he threw 4 picks. Forte would run well one game, and then run so poorly the next there would be talk of benching him. The D could hold the Niners to 10 points one week, and the next give up 41 to Arizona. It has now been 3 years since the Bears’ Super Bowl run – 3 years and 0 playoff games. The model didn’t like the inconsistency – it went 5-9, and 8-7 in over/unders. 2010 Outlook :  Chicago made a splash in off-season free agency, adding Julius Peppers, Chester Taylor to help Forte, and Brandon Manumaleuna. But I am not sure that those guys will help ensure a more consistent effort. I’m going with 5 or 6 wins in Lovie’s swan song.

Detroit Lions:

Anything would have been an improvement for Detroit in 2009 – literally – they went 0-16 the year before. Although the Lions struggled again in 2009 – the feeling that the team is improving was there. Matt Stafford showed guts in several instances, sometimes fighting off injury to lead the team. They scored a nice victory against Washington, and a gutty 38-37 win against the Browns. The model went 6-7-2 with Detroit, and 7-8 in over/unders. 2010 Outlook :  I may be alone here, and probably am, but I see the Lions making strides next year. They improved their RB situation immensely in the draft with Jahvid Best (pay attention fantasy players). Tony Scheffler and Nate Burleson will help Stafford in his sophomore year. The D improved with Corey Williams and VandenBosch up the middle. I see 6 wins, and a vast improvement.

Green Bay Packers:

The Packers were almost impossible to stop on offense last year. Their season low was 17 points – in a win against Dallas. Aaron Rodgers became elite. Ryan Grant had an excellent comeback season. Driver and Jennings continued to excel, and a new weapon was found in Jermichael Finley. Where the Packers showed weakness was the O-Line. Rodgers spent much of the season on his back. Although they improved toward the end of the season, it was still a problem. The D was very inconsistent. They had some nice performances (7 points to Dallas, 14 to Baltimore), and some very poor ones (38 to Tampa, 37 to Pittsburgh, 31 to Cincy). I went 6-8-1 with the Pack, and 6-9 over/unders. 2010 Outlook :  A lot of sportscasters and NFL analysts have made Green Bay their Super Bowl pick from the NFC. Maybe it’s the Viking fan in me, but I see it coming down to the wire in the division, and I think neither one of the two has done anything to pass New Orleans. Getting Al Harris back will help the Pack on D, and first round pick Brian Bulaga will help the O-Line. I’m giving the Packers 10 wins, in a dogfight with the Vikes in the North.

Minnesota Vikings:

Minnesota’s first year with Brett Favre was a good one. The passing game from the old man was more they could have ever expected. What was surprising was that the running game didn’t really improve. Favre’s ability was supposed to open up the box for AP – but Peterson had many disappointing games – just ask his fantasy owners. Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin blossomed into stars. On defense, it was more of the same Viking tradition, great on the line – horrible in coverage. The model went 8-6-1 with the Vikings, and 5-10 in over/unders. 2010 Outlook :  The Vikings basically bring back the same team as last year, but with more questions : Will Favre perform at the same level as last year? How much will they miss Sidney Rice for the for the first half of the season? Will Adrian Peterson be as productive without Chester Taylor? How will they stop the pass with an older Winfield, rookie Chris Cook, and Lito Sheppard? I don’t think it will be a repeat 2009 performance, but 10 wins is in reach.

Until next time…

Categories: MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL
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