Home > MLB, NFL > August 18 – Model Results, a MLB Question, and NFL Re-Preview (Part 2 of 8)

August 18 – Model Results, a MLB Question, and NFL Re-Preview (Part 2 of 8)

Hello Readers –

So how did the model do last year? Like I mentioned yesterday, not great – but I’d like to believe it can get better. Of the 4 major sports, the NFL has the smallest sample size to draw conclusions from (i.e. they have the least number of games in a season.) Not making excuses, but I’d be more put off if a baseball evaluation program was as off. Anyway, the results :

  Winners  Line Over/Under
All Games 147-93 (61.25%) 125-109-6 (53.42%) 117-120-3 (49.34%)
Top 8 88-40 (68.75%) 62-63-3 (49.6%) 65-62-1 (51.18%)
Top 4 48-16 (75%) 34-29-1 (53.97%) 32-31-1 (50.79%)
Best Bets 12-4 (75%) 10-5-1 (66.67%) 8-8-0 (50%)

As you can see, not great. The over/unders were basically a coin flip. I did to pretty well with top games each week against the line. The winner numbers were decent.

I should take a sec to explain the rows. Top 8 are the top 8 games where I differed the most from the Vegas line. Same for Top 4, and Best Bets are the games where I differed the most from the Vegas line. At some point I’ll get into some of the details of the model. But I am looking forward to a better year this year.

 Here’s a topic for discussion – maybe I can get a comment or two today. Three second basemen returned to their teams from injury last night – which one will have the greatest effect on their teams and the pennant race ?

Utley, PHI  .271/11/37 in 269 AB

Prado, ATL .318/13/45 in 443 AB

Pedroia, BOS .288/12/41 in 299 AB

My vote is for Utley. I think he fuels the Philly lineup – even more than Howard. What’s your vote and why?

One more note : You can now reach the blog at www.sportstistics.com and www.sportstistics.net. Bookmark it!

OK, 2nd installment of the NFL Re-Previews – the NFC West :

Arizona Cardinals :

The Cardinals followed up their Super Bowl runner-up year by making it to the second round of the playoffs last year – relying heavily on the pass. Arizona finished 12th in the league in passing yards, but only 28th in rushing. Even so, the Cards only scored less than 20 points 4 times. The model went 8-7 with Arizona, and with many overs helped go 10-5 on over/unders. 2010 Outlook :  New QB on a heavy passing team – there will be change.  There are a lot of questions on offense – Will Wells and Hightower take up the slack? Will Leinart prove everyone wrong? Will they miss Boldin?  They live in the worst division in football, but too many questions for me. I’m going with 7 wins.

St,  Louis Rams :

I went 10-5 with the Rams last year, at one point winning 7 in a row. The team seemed to get better as the season progressed – the first 5 games they covered once, the next 5 they covered 4 times, including a close one with the powerful Saints. They covered due to defense though – they didn’t score more than 23 all season. I went 7-8 on over/unders. 2010 Outlook : Whether it’s Feeley or Bradford who starts the season, it will be another long haul. Jackson can open things up for either one if he stays healthy – big if. Spags will have the D playing well, but will it be enough? I have them at 5-11.

San Francisco 49ers:

The last 2 teams in this division did not help my model. The Niners were very hard to predict last year, coming out like gangbusters – winning 3 of their first 4, including a win on the road vs. the rival Cards. (The loss being the Favre/Greg Lewis miracle catch in week 3) They proceeded to lose 4 straight, and then alternated wins and losses the rest of the year. It was ugly – I went 3-9-3 with them, and 6-9 on over/unders. 2010 Outlook : I think this is the year the Niners return to the top of their lousy division – they have a QB who looked solid the second half of 2010, a very good RB in Gore, and Crabtree will keep getting better. In this division, 9 wins will get you into the dance, and that’s where I have the 49ers.

Seattle Seahawks:

Well, it can only get better. How bad was I at predicting Seahawk games? Try 1-14. This was a team of extremes – wins by 41, 28 – losses by 38, 27, 26. Losing to Tampa at home by 17. Not knowing whether Hasselbeck would play a good amount of the time didn’t help, either. I went 7-8 in over/unders – but even that was surprising considering how inconsistent they were.  2010 Outlook :  Enter Pete Carroll. It will take him a couple of seasons to turn this team around. I like Forsett, but he’ll probably split time with newly acquired Leon Washington. Last year they were 5-11, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they put up the same record this go-around.

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Categories: MLB, NFL
  1. jer
    August 19, 2010 at 12:34 PM

    Utley- hands down, don’t know if you got invited to his national coming out party last Oct/Nov but Reggie-esque was NOT an overstatement.
    NFC West is always tricky, how do you guage the strength of schedule? SF has a real softy TY, 9 wins would be a bad season for them.

  2. August 19, 2010 at 2:33 PM

    Hey Jer — I do gauge strength of schedule – but I also factor in a team’s propensity to lose games they should win and vice versa. Last year it seemed they had more of the former (losses to ATL, TEN at home) than the latter (only the opening week win in Arizona). This year I gave them these losses : @SEA, NO, @ATL, @ARI, @GB, @SD, @STL . The STL game, to me, is the only game they should win where I gave them a loss. They also have a game @CAR where I gave them a win, but that one is debatable too. Feel free to disagree. Thanks for posting!

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